Not a bad week. I wasn't around much to monitor things and that worked out well for me. I'm inching toward my year high for the portfolio. I'd be happy with a 40% gain for the year. Ugly showed that he had a 100% gain for the MONTH. Why am I not trading the way he is? I probably couldn't hack it.
I printed out an application for some margin at my broker but I didn't fill it out. I'm too scared.
A few of you have inquired about my upcoming scuba trip. This one isn't too spectacular. It's in Jamaica. My scuba purist brother told me to "enjoy the dead reef". He is the director of invertebrates at the Omaha Zoo. It angers him when I eat shrimp ("Do you know how many other animals had to die in those shrimp nets?"), when I take a cruise ("I hope you know they dynamited a healthy reef so that ship could dock."), and when he sees my neglected coral tank ("You're an embarrassment to the aquarium industry.").
I put this stupid video together so you could see me underwater. Our favorite scuba trip so far was to the Fiji Islands. I have never seen so much life underwater. The Caribbean is pretty boring by comparison. I've been spoiled.
We're staying at a Sandals resort and they offer free scuba diving as part of the package. They don't however, offer free internet access. Weasels.
Today the portfolio popped a bit which made for some good entertainment. It was up 1.79%. I made a selling error yesterday with PKOH (which I bought over a month ago). It hasn't done anything so no big loss. I still whimper when I see a stock do well after I've sold it, but that's something I need to work on.
Right now I'm trying to take advantage of this irrational market. I've been a bit hesitant to stay in after an awful August, but so far things are going pretty well.
Like Charles Kirk, I sure wish I would have bought this one. Here's a guy that bought it and then sold it with a wimpy 2% stop. There's always a stock like that somewhere, even in a sucky market. That's what makes this "treasure hunt" kinda fun.
That Chris Perruna sure knows how to pick 'em.
Learning from investing mistakes.
The last two days have seen my portfolio meander back and forth but really hasn't done much one way or the other. Life has been very busy, so the market hasn't been a priority lately.
My wife of 15 years (what was she thinking) and I are going on a scuba vacation in two weeks. My goal is to ignore the market completely during that time (except for the books I bring) so I won't be posting at all. I'll let everybody know before I leave (like you care anyway).
Charles Kirk has a huge list of links if you need something to keep you entertained today.
I pretty much expected today to go the way it did. Nothing too impressive or too frightening. I lost about the same as the market as a whole. No big whoop.
Not a bad week even though I got beat by some of my screens. The portfolio was up 5.93% for the week. I'd feel better about this week's performance if the rest of the market hadn't gone haywire. So for now, it's hard to tell if I'm just riding the wave of enthusiasm.
The DOW is just under 200 points away from the all-time high again. I guess I would rather have clawed my way back while the indexes all struggled. It makes me feel like my gains are tenuous. If things do rocket back down, I hope I'm smart enough not to make the same mistakes that cost me nearly 20% the last time things broke down. Maybe I should go back and read some of my old posts.
This month I'm doing some research on stop losses. Every few months I change my ideas about the best way to manage my account. The whole stop loss issue gets me all worked up. Here's a decent article in Smart Money Online about using stop losses.
These guys have a much better survey than mine this week. I hope their sample is larger than mine.
Today didn't end up as strong as I thought it would, but it was still decent--up 1.17%. I've got a couple of stocks in my portfolio that just aren't moving with the trend. I'm thinking about booting them out if they don't show some action by Friday.
Now that things are looking a bit better for the year, I went back and looked at the mess that I made of August. One of the concepts in Trading for a Living (see earlier post) is to quit trading for the rest of the month if your portfolio drops from 6% to 8% in value. That would have put me at about 36% at the end of August. Instead I traded myself down another 12% by the end of August.
Although it is a bit arbitrary, I think it is a good idea to refocus after that kind of draw down. It is obvious that things aren't quite working out and taking a few weeks away from the market can be enlightening (I wish I could speak from experience, but I can't--at least not yet).
Blogger has been giving me fits all day long, so I apologize for this late post. I can't quite figure out how the discount rate effects EVERYTHING. Apparently it does.
The portfolio was up 3.03% today--not too impressive given the general market was up nearly as much. I'm hoping the euphoria lasts for the rest of the week. I'm up to my 30% goal for September. Yahoo!
Chris Perruna has an excellent article about using position sizing to manage risk on his website today. I've mentioned before that the whole risk management thing is new to me this year. It's all so simple and straight-forward, but it doesn't seem too many traders do it. It's one of the reasons new traders flame out so quickly. I think I just got lucky.
Check out Ugly's Bob Dillon's stock picks video. It made me laugh.
It appears that the bulls really haven't shown up much today and may be waiting for the "real deal" tomorrow. USA Today announced that the fate of the stock market was to be determined tomorrow.
I don't know about everybody else, but I'm not waiting on the sidelines. I'm fully invested (and losing so far today). I'm getting tired of being burned every time I try to time things. I do much better when I pick a stock and let it do what it does.
Speaking of timing, I have found that waiting until lunch time when making a buy has helped me tremendously with my emotions and with getting a decent price for a stock. I used to buy before 10:00 am and often sat there with my hand on the trigger waiting for the best time to jump in. I ALWAYS second guessed my decision no matter which direction the stock headed.
Things usually level out during lunch time and it seems to me to be the best time to place a trade. I'm in a much better frame of mind to make a decision and I usually can get a better feel for where the stock is headed for the rest of the day.
I guess the Rapture was supposed to happen on Friday. Curiously, I haven't gotten any e-mails yet explaining why it didn't.
Everybody's talking about this being a wild week. It should be fun. I've been getting a lot more "buy" signals lately and I'm chomping at the bit to recover some of my August losses by the end of September.
From what I've been reading lately (see earlier post), "chomping at the bit" describes a trader who is pretty much an idiot. In fact I've noticed that many trading traits that I possess are considered "dangerous".
I think the best thing for everybody who reads this blog to do is to sit back and watch me systematically self destruct. And while you're at it, click on a few ads that you see on StockPunk. I've made 9 cents so far in September. Quit laughing.
This was kind of a dull week for me. The portfolio drifted back and forth but really made no big advances either way. I made a tad over 1% this week, which I guess is better than losing.
Next week looks to be the most interesting out of the month of September, although I think next week's decisions have already been built into this week's prices. We'll see.
Pradeep over at Stockbee has a new members-only area. I joined a few seconds after he put up a "Join" button. The suggested cost is $50. I paid more because I think the information he provides saves me that much worth of time each week. I would encourage anyone who like to trade to join. It's money well-spent. Quit being so dang cheap.
My arrogance last week has been replaced with humility this week. The market is handily beating me so far.
I finished Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom by Van K. Tharp about a month ago and I began reading Trading for a Living by Dr. Alexander Elder this week. I've learned a lot from both books.
I am in no way prepared to make a living from trading yet. I hope to be able to however, in 5 to 10 years. But in preparing for that kind of life, there are many things that I never took into consideration. Both books addressed these issues and more:
I've been very busy the last two days, so I've missed a couple of posts. I didn't have much to write about anyway, the market has been kind of lethargic. The portfolio has barely moved.
Chris Perruna has a nifty article on his take on the upcoming Jewish holidays Rosh Hashana and Yom Kippur.
I've gotten e-mails recently that explain that Rosh Hashana 2007 is the day all Christians will be "raptured" out of here. So I guess it doesn't matter anyway.
Not much went on today. I lost 1%. I held on to SILC too long and then sold it at its low. Call me an idiot.
Not much happening this week. I still plan to be fully invested unless things take a dramatic turn. I'm feeling better about how stocks have acted in the past couple of weeks. Things seem to be getting back to normal (at least for me and the screens I use).
My goal for this month is to take my return above 30% with my goal for the year being 40%. We'll see how things play out.
That was a nasty week. I was feeling all good about myself going into Friday morning. I looked at the premarket and got that sinking feeling--why am I not a day-trader? It sure would be nice to be sitting on a big pile of cash in the morning when everything goes to pot. Maybe some day I'll get it figured out. For today I lost 2.20%.
The week wasn't too awful. I made a little over 1%. If I could just do that each week--hmmm. A good sign is that I got handily beat by a couple of my screens. There are a few stocks that are doing quite well out there and I capitalized on a couple SILC & FTI.
It will be interesting to see what Monday will bring us.
I used to read Ugly Chart every day, but when he started trading futures I lost interest. He's been writing some interesting stuff recently and I love his sense of humor. He still seems to be more of a day trader, but his concepts fall in line with some of my ideas.
He also has some hilarious videos and great sarcastic commentary. So I'm putting Ugly Chart back on my list of Great Stock Blogs list. Check it out.
Chris Peruna has a good article on creating several stock screens that he has found perform pretty well. I'm always looking for interesting (and profitable) stock screens and I appreciate anybody who is willing to share the "mechanics" of their screens.
I've been visiting his site more and more recently. It's a great source of information. I'm adding it to my "Other great blogs" list.
I don't know how one stinking indicator can get people so worked up, but apparently it has this morning. SELL, SELL, SELL!!! Wimps.
I made a whole .03% today. I'll take it. This has been a pretty good week. I've been able to recover about half of my losses since the downturn in July. Stocks are starting to click like they used to. Even if things continue to meander like they have the past couple of weeks, I think there are still opportunities to capture quick moves. Just be nimble and not too greedy.
One of my favorite stock blogs used to be Solitaire Trader. He hasn't posted for about a year, but when a stock made more than 10% in a day for him, he did a "Snoopy Dance". I had a Snoopy Dance stock yesterday SILC.
One thing that makes me all giddy inside is when the market has a sucky day and I make a few bucks. It doesn't have to be much. Even one buck is OK. All right, even if I LOSE LESS money than the market as a whole, I'm happy.
Today I made .48%. I'm doing my Chewbaca Howl. ARRUURRAGUH!!!
I debated about going all in today and I haven't had much time to monitor things, but I'm pretty happy with my decision making so far. The portfolio was up 2.81%.
I've got myself spread out a little more than usual. I own 10 stocks when my average is 5. With things as volatile as they have been, I figured it might behoove me to broaden my stops a bit. Wider stops might have helped me in August (see my previous post for some reasoning).
I'm checking out another stock service this month. As I learn more and become more comfortable with my style of trading, I like to go back and review things that have piqued my curiosity in the past. I'll let you know about my experience in more detail next month.
I was quite surprised when I went over the Zweig screen for August. I base a lot of my trading on that screen and I figured it would have taken it on the chin during the month of August. On the contrary, it made 5.27%. Buying all the stocks you see in the chart on the first day of August and holding them through today would have beat me by 20% this month. That makes me question my tactics a little bit.
A couple of stocks caught me by surprise this month. I didn't have BW on my watch list this whole month and it was the best performer in the screen. I also ignored HRS and jumped out of VMI too soon.
I'm not sure if this month was an just a fluke, but I'm sure there is some further analysis that I can do to figure out what went wrong.
I debated for several months whether or not to include any advertising on my site. Some stock bloggers I admire refuse to allow outside advertising (The Kirk Report) and some layer them on pretty thick.
I planned to take the high road like Charles Kirk until I read an article in last month's Fast Company magazine about a 17-year-old girl who started a web site that offered cute templates for MySpace accounts for free. She included Adsense advertisements and this year cleared ONE MILLION DOLLARS (you have to say it like the evil guy in Austin Powers). Holy Toledo!
So, I jumped on the band wagon this August and --you may want to sit down for this--I made THREE DOLLARS AND EIGHTY ONE CENTS (you can turn off your evil guy voice for that one). So tonight I'm treating myself to some Taco Bell (I probably won't be able to get a drink--just water please).
To put it bluntly, my trading in August sucked. Fortunately, the market as a whole sucked as well so I don't feel too awful about my performance. Judging from a perusal of other blogs, sites, and newsletters, August was tough for everyone.
For the most part, I stuck to my trading plan in August. I didn't lose more than 1% of my portfolio on any one trade. Unfortunately, I had several losing trades in a row so I ended up down around 10% for the month.
Like I've mentioned before, I've dramatically changed the amount of risk on each trade. Last year I often was fully invested in one or two stocks with wide stops. A struggling market made HUGE dents in my portfolio that were hard to recover from. I'm not seeing HUGE advances either, but I'll take a less volatile approach over insanity any time.
I've been taking a closer look at technical analysis since this downturn began. I've been a fundamental guy for years and frankly technical analysis never seemed to work for me. But during the past month I've seen some advantages to using TA when my stocks with strong fundamentals began sucking wind. It would have been prudent to look over some charts before I blindly jumped back in (and consequently got my clock cleaned).
I'm counting on a strong finish to the year and my goal is to recover my losses and be ahead by more than 43% by December 31st. I've got my work cut out for me, but with every passing month (and day) I learn something new.
I had myself convinced that I should stay out of the market today and let sleeping dogs lie until Tuesday. But the premarket and overnight trading in Asia have got me all worked up. Do I sit this one out and potentially miss out on some decent gains or do I take a risk and jump in for some short term action. Hmmmmm.
Early on the market tanked and then roared back and then tanked again and ended up down a bit. If you've got a handle on this action, pat yourself on the back. I'm hoping that September will make more sense, but historically it has been a volatile month. I'm too impatient to wait a whole month (I'm doing good if I wait a couple of days) so I plan to regroup this weekend and try my luck again on Tuesday (you know you're a trader when you look forward to Mondays and you're disappointed if Monday is a holiday).
Value Blog Review has set up a best of the stock blogs list where folks can vote. I thought I would be bumped off the list pretty rapidly, but some how StockPunk remains in the top 20. Thanks to those of you who have voted. It makes me feel all tingly inside.
I've mentioned The Prudent Speculator in previous posts. Hulbert Financial Digest reports that TPS has averaged a 20% return for the last 20 years. That's the best performance that any newsletter advisory has been able to put together according to Hulbert. If your portfolio is doing better than thier's then you should probably quit whining.
Here is an article from the authors of The Prudent Speculator that kind of "qualifies" the recent market action. It's good to listen to some voices of reason during confusing times in the market.
I wasn't expecting that. I finally convince myself that after a big losing day where several of my stops trigger it isn't prudent to get all worked up and jump back in. Then Bernanke makes it all better and everybody jumps back in while I'm left holding a bunch of unsettled funds. Oh well, it was just one day. But I'm getting really tired of these "one days" that make no sense.
Last week's gains are but a memory. Where do we go from here? I wish I knew. There are still folks out there saying a huge rally is building up. I hope so.
Today my portfolio was down 3.10% -- its worst showing since June. It has been very difficult for me to figure this one out, but I've learned that there are some bloggers out there who have devised some valuable indicators.
Stockbee has been cautioning his readers since the decline started and has implored traders to stay out until after Labor Day. I thought he was being a bit extreme, but now he seems quite reasonable.
Whatever happens, I hope to learn from this. I hope you do as well. Stay encouraged. People have been making money in the markets for hundreds of years. This last month doesn't mean a thing.
The market kind of churned all day with nothing really notable. Every one of my picks was down today. My portfolio was down 1.18%.
I didn't see anything concerning today so I'll just keep following the program I guess.
There are a few changes in my screens, but after a pretty good week, I'm hesitant to mechanically dump stocks that no longer appear on my screens. I'm holding on to last week's winners and dumping the poor performers that no longer appear on the screens.
I'm hoping that things continue positively this week, but there is still a lot of uncertainty out there. Have a good week!!
It looks like the majority of StockPunk readers use stock screens to pick their stocks. The next highest choice was doing your own research followed by stock blogs.
Personally, I find stock screening the best way to go for finding my picks. I've tried using my own research, but I've found that my emotions and flawed logic always get in the way. I make assumptions that influence my decisions based on what they company does, trends, economic influences, etc. All that stuff just gets me confused and I end up holding on to losers too long.
Stock screens keep the emotion out of my decision making. If I'm doing what I'm supposed to based on my strategy, there is no reason to be upset about stocks plunging.
I am obsessed with looking over performances of newsletters, blog writers, and indexes and I on Friday it makes me giddy to compare my performance with the "big boys". Two of the newsletters that I check each week are The Stock Superstars Report and The Prudent Speculator. There are very few advisory services that are bold enough to post their returns each week, and both of these services do.
You'll notice that despite the brilliance of the managers of these services (I am not being sarcastic--those guys are SMART) both of them are struggling this year. Neither one of them is outperforming the market by much.
So don't be discouraged if you're struggling as well. This market isn't making things easy for anybody.
"We've long felt that the only value of stock forecasters is to make fortune tellers look good. Even now, Charlie and I continue to believe that short-term market forecasts are poison and should be kept locked up in a safe place, away from children and also from grown-ups who behave in the market like children." Warren Buffett
I always insist that I have no idea where the market is headed at any given time. Great investors seem to say the same thing. Does that make me a great investor? Probably not.
Although I got beat by most of my stock screens, I still ended up having a positive week this week. The portfolio was up 5.22%. Another week like that and I'll be back to where I was a month ago.
I stayed pretty unemotional throughout the week. I barely even monitored things today. It was a pleasant surprise when I looked over things after the close. I wasn't quite sure where I would end up at the end of the week.
I have no idea where things are headed, and there are a lot of folks out there that are still very concerned, but I'm feeling better about keeping my money active.
I made a mistake with a trailing stop I set today, but otherwise I stuck to the program. I was down 1.35% today.
I was hoping the jump at the open would continue throughout the day but no such luck. Things still look pretty solid if you ask me so I'm planning on sticking with things until I get some bad feelings about where things are headed.
It's been a month and a half since I've made over 2% in a day. Today I was up nearly 3%. Man, that felt like more like 6 months than 2.
Things are starting to click again, and it looks like the market is getting its legs back after a good punch in the nozzle. There is still a lot of uncertainty and confusion out there, but we are starting to see a lot more stability.
Another OK day today. I made some money again. Things continue to feel "right" and I'm nearly fully invested right now. The market still seems a bit skitterish but I haven't noticed any gut-wrenching swings that were common the last few weeks.
For the first time since July 27th, I made some money. That's almost one whole sucky month. It wasn't much, but it felt good to finally make some decisions that weren't to my detriment.
I have a better feeling about the market. It feels more like it did before the dark times. We'll see.
I'm planning on putting some money to work this week. My gut tells me that the worst is behind us for a while, but then again, what do I know. Every stock on my screens is a bit beat up, so hopefully over the next few weeks they'll recover a bit.
Looking back over the last four weeks, I think my lack of patience is what hurt me. I got a little too cocky about being up 43% and doing well during the first week of the downturn. The second week bumped me out of all of my stocks, but I was so hurried to get back in and catch the bounce that I got my clock cleaned on several buys.
I did the same thing in March when the market corrected a bit. I jumped in the next day after the big drop thinking that I was going to capitalize on a bounce back up. I got burned badly that time too (but apparently not bad enough that it taught me a lesson).
I think it would be good to take a longer break after my stops trigger. The market isn't going anywhere, and it will welcome me back after sitting out a few weeks.
Thanks to those of you who voted in the StockPunk Poll last week. There were no big revelations. Some of us have lost a lot and some haven't during the last few weeks. Congratulations to the 15% of you who have made money in the last month.
If anybody would like to write in and share with StockPunk readers how you made money or some of the mistakes you made (like me) please do. Just e-mail me your story and I pick some good ones to post to the blog.
The last few weeks have been tough for me. It has seemed like every move I make has been the wrong one. I felt pretty confident at the beginning of this week that things were changing for the better and they ended up getting awful by Thursday. Then things seemed to turn around and I felt that I could put a bit of cash to work this morning. Unbelievably, I lost more money today--1.57%. I can't seem to make money even when the market does.
For the week, I lost 5.87%.
I haven't been as excited about receiving my finance magazines lately. A few of them are starting to bore me. I guess there are just so many ways that you can say "Stay out of debt and own stuff."
There's a good article (with reviews) about the personal finance magazines that I subscribe to at Get Rich Slowly. Take a gander.
Even members of Charles Kirk's Kirk Report have been getting dribbles of information during his vacation. He's off hiking with his wife somewhere in Minnesota while the market roils. Can't he use his trusty Blackberry to help us through this time of trouble?
I hate it when he goes on vacation. I feel like I need a voice of reason when the market sucks. I obsessively click on his RSS feed only to see "Forced Selling=Opportunities" over and over.
Help us Charles Kirk, you're our only hope.
I felt reassured as stops triggered on the way down. WOW! It was ugly. And then things turned around. I had a couple of buy stops that I canceled amidst the carnage. They were down 5%. Of course the ended up +15%.
I had two sell stops trigger and they came roaring back as well.
Pradeep said things would bounce soon, but nobody really knows if this is the end of the stinky market, or just a short stop on the way down. I know I sure don't.
I was pretty confident that I would stay out of things tomorrow, but now I'm not so sure. What's wrong with me?
It's times like these that separate out people who beat the market and those who don't. Wimpy traders will be disheartened by several frustrating weeks and quit--possibly forever. They often jump to another strategy that continues to lose money and they grow even more frustrated. It's easy to do, but it is one of the worst things you can do.
The thoughts are difficult to stop. I know that over the long term, my strategy blows away the market. Even though I know that, these last few weeks have shaken my confidence a bit. We tend to have built-in biases that emphasize the downturns and obsess over losses. It's all part of trading, and the sooner you're able to handle a loss with the same emotions that you handle a gain the better off you'll be.
I've learned a ton during the last few weeks. Hopefully, I'll be able to use what I've learned and become a better trader in the future.
I have not had this many consecutive losses in years. This is the worst my screens have ever done. Today I was down another 1.57%. I have not had a positive day since August 2nd. Things look kind of bleak.
On the bright side, I'm still up over 25% while the S&P has just gone negative for the year. I couldn't have achieved that if I hadn't managed risk during the last 4 weeks. So I see that as a positive change in my trading.
I have never traded in a market like this and it has thrown me for quite a loop. I was pretty sure things would recover this week, and so far I've been quite wrong. All I can say to everybody is hang in there. If things do recover, there might be some amazing opportunities out there.
I made a decision to put some money to work on Monday. I should have waited, but I was feeling pretty good about the immediate future and I think my decision was sound. Things just haven't panned out the way I had thought they would yet.
I lost 1.80% today and .50% yesterday. I can't remember the last time I was on this kind of losing streak. As long as I am following my plan, there's no reason to freak and feel bad about my performance. No one has this thing figured out despite the many claims to the contrary. Losing money is all part of the game and the best traders are the ones who don't let it get to them.
I like to track the performance of other folks to benchmark mine. Two newsletters that I look at every week are StockSuperstars and The Prudent Speculator. They both post their YTD performance and it is my goal each week to stay ahead of them.
There are bright guys and gals managing these portfolios, so if you're keeping up with them you should give yourself a pat on the back. Both of them are struggling right now, so it gives me a good indication that things are tough all over right now.
I look to a few guys for their take on what's happening each day. Both Charles Kirk and Pradeep Bonde are on vacation now and their posting has been erratic. It makes me realize how much I read their stuff every day.
I have no idea what Monday will bring. Stocks in my new screens did really well on Friday, but in this market, there's no guarantee that things will continue positively. I'm ready to get back in, but I'm holding out for some strong performances. I've got 7 stocks ready to go. I'm waiting to see if each one continues to show strength. I have price targets set on each and if they blow through those, I'll buy.
There's still a chance that I'll get slapped around like I did the last two weeks, but I'm seeing some strength in some of the momentum stocks that got beat up over the last few weeks. I'm willing to take a bit more risk now.
I've noticed over the last three years (I know that's not a lot of time) that two to three awful weeks with my screens often are followed by a few really good weeks. We'll see what this week hold for all of us. Good trading everybody!
What a ride. This was a frustrating week for me. EVERYTHING that I tried failed miserably. I'm all cash going in to this weekend. I lost 3.17% this week despite barely trading at all.
I almost wish things would have been worse today. I could use some confirmation that I'm doing the smartest thing by staying on the sidelines. There were several of my watchlist stocks making 5% or more today and that bothered me a bit. That makes Monday difficult to judge.
I'm not convinced we're out of the woods yet. My best bet is to take next week off and re-evaluate things next weekend. We'll see if I can hold out that long.
Despite the general market's slide, several of my watch list stocks are showing some pizazz this morning. What I need to learn, however, is that one day doesn't mean much. My lack of patience has caused me to lose too much over the last couple of weeks.
If you read the blogs of successful traders (ie Charles Kirk, Pradeep Bonde) you'll see that they aren't stressed about not being in the market. They barely batted an eye during the huge gains at the beginning of the week. They're just waiting for things to turn around. There is no hurry to get back into this thing.
Don't ask me how, but StockPunk got a tiny, insignificant, blink-and-you-miss-it mention in an article in the Wall Street Journal online. Laugh if you will, but I thought that was pretty cool. Here's the link. Look for it in the "Related Articles and Blogs" section at the bottom of the page.
Well, that was sure ugly. I finally have a day that legitimizes some of my decision making. I had one stock left this morning, and it's gone now. Down .50%. I still haven't gotten things figured out.
I almost jumped back in this morning. There were quite a few indicators that things were looking much better. It didn't take much to get the market all skittered. My screens are doing horribly with several stocks losing over 10% so far this week. VSEC was down 20% today and that was my most interesting candidate.
This is the first time since I started trading back in 2003 that my performance is beating most of my screens. Usually the dumb screens make me look foolish for trying to manage them. These last few weeks have ingrained in my brain the importance of risk management.
I hope everybody out there is using this craziness as a learning tool. I learn the most when thing are working against me. It's good to reevaluate and think through your trading philosophies. Don't be discouraged by this (unless you've lost everything). There are plenty of opportunities coming our way. Take a break and enjoy life and let the market take care of itself.
I'm sorry to say that I have been unable to capitalize on this mini-rally that's taken place this week. Today I lost another .36%. My watch list continues to show wide swings with some stocks up 5% and some down 5%. I haven't been able to get a handle on what direction to take so I'm trying to be more of an observer than a participant.
STMX was down over 30% at the market open today and never recovered. Ouch. I'm glad I didn't own any of that one.
I'll be interested to see how my screens change this weekend. This has been kind of a wacky week, and if we're headed back up, I hope I can catch a piece.
I'm keeping a close eye on Stockbee because he's got some interesting indicators that he uses to tell him when to fold and when to hold. Today he's saying that things are looking more positive.
I'm mostly in cash and the market has had two positive days in a row and I'm STILL losing money. Today I was down .14%.
A few stocks on my watch list had OK days today, but I'm still not seeing the type of gains that would indicate to me that I should jump back in. It's a lot easier to watch the market swing when you're standing on the sidelines, but to be honest, I'd prefer it to stay down when I don't own many stocks.
Charles Kirk wrote about the market's uncanny ability to read your mind and make you look like an idiot. That's what happened to me today. Despite a huge bounce today, my portfolio took a beating. It seemed like I got outfoxed at every turn. I was down 2.17% today.
Somebody made this comment on my post earlier today:
Do you really judge your trading by what happens within a few hours of putting on a trade? Reread Faith's section on outcome bias in his book.
My answer: No, I don't usually judge my trading that way. But when I trade for the wrong reasons (like worrying that I'm going to miss out on a big rally for example) I make major mistakes. That's what happened this morning. I saw a couple of stocks holding their own amidst the carnage of my watch list. I had planned to stay away from things and let them settle down a bit before trading again. Instead, I made some knee-jerk buys at their absolute highs and watched them quickly crumble. I even stopped out of one of them on a day the DOW rose 287 points. The problem wasn't with the trades I made. The problem was with the reason I made them.
My emotions suck. Despite all of my ranting about taking time, being patient, waiting for the right opportunity, I jump back in on a couple of stocks from my screens that seem to be bucking the trend. They both shot ahead over 5% in the early going as the market itself looked like it was going to have a pretty good day.
They held up when things very quickly went south. I'm a genius in ANY market I told myself. I then watched them plummet.
The day is far from over, but I wish that I would have taken my own advice and quit being so desperate to recover a little loss. I know better.
A few of you have directed me to the video of Jim Cramer's rant on the Federal Reserve's blindness to the struggles of the current market. CNBC has since posted a clarification of his comments on their website here.
I think people took his emotionalism a little too seriously. In his second interview he presented his case a little more rationally.
Although I'm not sure if this is the time to be buying stocks, I don't think that we need to blindly sell all of our holdings either. It won't be more than a few weeks (maybe months--who knows?) until our screens are "working" again and we're back to making money.
Let me stress again the importance of managing your trades. Despite my disappointment in some of my trading decisions, I've only lost 2.5% in the last two weeks. No big deal. The world is not over.
The advantage we have as individual traders is that we don't have to go with the flow. We can maneuver in and out the market pretty much at will. So use that huge advantage to make the most of these uncertain times.
More stocks are showing up on my screens as the market struggles. That's usually a good sign. However, after getting knocked around last week, I'm very hesitant to jump back in this week. We'll have to see how things play out. It's harder right now to determine whether a bounce back up is going to last, or if we're in a losing trend for a while longer.
There are a lot of folks screaming out there about losing 20% or more over the last couple of weeks. That's probably what would have happened to me a while back. Controlling your position sizes and the risk of each trade is EXTREMELY important during times like these. When the market is pushing ahead as a whole, it's easy to think you've got things figured out and that you don't need to protect yourself from risk. There is a lot of uncertainty out there right now and thinking that you know what's going to happen is a sure recipe for disaster.
VSEC has appeared back on my screens this week. It lost 9% last week, and looked like it was recovering until Friday. I'll keep my eye on it.
SMTX still shows up on my "To The Moon" screen despite losing 50% since I sold it in mid-July. I'm starting to see why mechanical investing can create problems for a trader.
It should be a very interesting week this week. I still have a couple of positions open that I'm sorry that I took last week. They are very close to triggering their stops so we'll see if the portfolio is all cash by the end of the week.
I guess if this was a stellar week and the bulls had come roaring back, I would have been upset that I had stayed out of the market and would have been cursing my timidity. Instead, I jumped back in on Monday and Tuesday based on my emotions and very little data and now I'm cursing my lack of patience.
Luckily, I had to wait for a portion of my portfolio to settle for three days so I didn't cause as much of a disaster as I could have. I would have been wise to follow the advice of Stockbee (and other intelligent traders) who called this week pretty accurately.
For the week, my portfolio lost 5.44%.
There's not much good that can be said for this week's insanity. Today was just plain ugly. My portfolio was down 1.54%.
Over at Value Blog Review he's posted a list of the Best Stock Blogs. StockPunk is number 11 right now. I'm guessing the thing is broken or something.
I just got done reading Way of the Turtle: The Secret Methods that Turned Ordinary People into Legendary Traders. It was interesting, but to be honest, any time someone writes about trading coffee futures my eyes glaze over. There wasn't a lot of meat in the book for somebody looking for interesting takes on the market or looking for better ways to trade.
A book I liked better that I read recently is Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom. There seemed to be quite a bit of information that I found very useful. I went back and read several parts two or three times and I don't do that very often with books I read.
Today I was up a little bit .19%. I haven't been able to figure this thing out yet. A few of you are ticked off because I appear to be "market timing", and I've whined about how that hasn't worked in the past. But it's so dang hard emotionally to stay on the sidelines. I'll discuss my internal struggles more this weekend.
The market has not been nice to me. Who can figure this thing out lately? It came roaring back late today but my portfolio barely noticed. I almost wish the market would just keep falling so that I could be sure I made a mistake by getting back in.
Today I was down again, 1.62%.
I didn't seem so smart today. I jumped in during the morning rally--knee-jerk style. I was thoroughly spanked by the end of the day when everything turned. I said I was going to wait this week out. I should have followed my own advice.
Down 2.46%
Things looked shaky this morning, but the bulls proved themselves this afternoon. I was too timid to take advantage of the movers and jumped in near the highs of the couple of stocks that I bought.
I sold VSEC this morning with a tight stop. It went on to lose 12%. Goodbye, VSEC--it was a nice run.
Overall the portfolio lost 1.62%. I'll take it given the losses that a lot of people endured last week.
After an awful week, some of my screens have changed dramatically. Two stocks that fared very well last week, VSEC and VSEA no longer appear on the Zweig screen. There are a couple of newcomers that haven't previously appeared, SILC and NE. Looking over the charts, none of them look particularly good yet.
With oil on the march upward again, several oil-related companies are showing up on my screens, NOV, HOC, GLP, and NE.
Valmont Industries (VMI), is right down the street from me and shows up in my Zweig RS screen. They make light poles--boring, but apparently profitable.
SMTX still shows up on the "To the Moon" screen. SMTX is down 30% in the last couple of weeks, so I'll keep my eye on it, but there's no way I'm going to predict where it's headed.
It should be an interesting week. I'm not sure how it will all play out, but I'm looking forward to another week of drama. Be good.
I'm supposed to be doing homework right now, but who can concentrate on that stuff when they've got stock market stuff to write about? Not me.
My happiest days as a trader are when the overall market is taking it in the shins and I still make money. That's what happened this week and I owe my success to risk management and position sizing. I've been trading differently this year. Instead of mechanically following a stock screen (like I did last year), I am paying attention to a few more aspects in my trading.
Last year, I did very well by unemotionally buying and selling based on one of my stock screens. The screen I used was very simple, and I post the results of that screen every week. The screen was the Punk's Zacks and Zweig screen and it made an impressive +60% last year--not too shabby. It didn't matter what was going on in the general market, I just did what the screen told me to do--no questions asked.
I began the year concentrating on that screen again, but after doing some reading and learning, I decided to vary my approach a bit. I discovered I was risking way too much on each trade. Last summer I had my WHOLE PORTFOLIO in one stock for a month (Sothebys BID)! I made over 16% that month, but I had no idea how risky (and stupid) I was being (even with a 25% stop).
Basically, I employed two important concepts that saved me from getting slapped around this week. 1) I refused to risk more than 1% of my portfolio value on any one trade. I stopped out of nearly every stock I owned by Wednesday, but I held on to one stock that refused to go down (VSEC). 2) I didn't allow VSEC's position size to get too out of hand by following it with a stop that wouldn't risk more than 1% of my portfolio. VSEC has gained 57% since I've bought it, so I had to be careful to keep it under control--especially during the rapid losses we saw this week.
The first five months of this year were very frustrating for me (as you can read in previous posts). My dumb screens were kicking sand in my face as I managed my risk and got all protective of my equity. But this week my patience paid off as my returns blew by most of the screens.
I think most traders focus on picking the right stocks (as I have in the past). But a huge part of making big returns comes from how you manage those picks. I'm learning that blindly trading my screens puts me at too much risk for a big loss that will shut me down as a trader.
I highly recommend Van K. Tharp's book Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom if you are interested in learning some ways to better your trading through risk management and position sizing. Here's some free information on position sizing.
What a week! There are a lot of conflicting ideas about what happened this week and about what's going to happen in the near future. I have no idea.
The portfolio actually had a good week -- up 4.16% (more on that this weekend). However, every one of the StockPunk portfolios bit it big time this week with the Zack's and Zweig portfolio showing its worst performance since I started tracking in 2005. It lost 10.69%.
I haven't figured out what I plan to do next week and I'm sure many of you are wondering the same thing--what now? I don't short stocks, so if things don't improve, I'll probably watch from the sidelines for a while.
The bears continue to control this one. I've never shorted a stock, and I'm not about to now (it's too scary). I'll have to say that this is the first time since I began trading that a market move like this didn't bother me. I've actually been able to make money this week. I'll discuss why this weekend.
The portfolio was up .73% today.
We ended up back in positive territory at the close. Don't ask me how. My portfolio was up 1.07%.
My wife told me to stay out of the market today and she was right. That fake bounce would have cost me a lot of dough. Maybe she should be doing this instead of me.
I'm watching SMTX, NILE, CTV, and DRYS closely. It looks like they'll do well today. But, I still think I'll sit this one out. I've been burned too many times when I'm too anxious to get back in because of the fear that I'll lose out.
I called that one well. It was ugly. Besides GLP, not a single stock on my screens managed to survive. VSEC was ahead by 4% most of the day, but met the same fate as most other stocks. My portfolio was down .59%.
It feels good to have a day that finally confirms some of my concerns about the market. The bulls didn't come rushing back this afternoon to save the day. I was tempted to put some money to work this morning, and I'm glad I listened to my head because I would have lost a lot more.
Where do we stand now? I have no idea. But I think I'm going to wait the rest of this week out and see what happens. I still own VSEC and RUSHA, so we'll see if they can lead a comeback. I'll give the rest of my money a rest and let is settle.
Things look ugly this morning so I'd be wise not to buy anything. We'll see how this day plays out, but if the bulls don't come back after running to the exits I think it could get kind of sloppy out there for a while.
My trading today was good overall. For the most part I avoided losers and kept winners. I sold all of my "copy cat" trades. It is time I stuck to the program that has made nearly 40% so far this year. Why am I grabbing trades from others who are making less and whose systems I don't understand? Stupid.
I put a 3% trailing stop on DRYS and it triggered after gaining 3% and dropping back down 3%. It then went on to gain 4% again. It no longer appeared on my screens, but I could have played it a little better.
I avoided mechanical trading today. SMTX lost 7.75%. SYNL continues to be a dog. What's wrong with that stock?
My portfolio was up 1.85% today.
I love the stock market. Another one of my passions is Bible Prophecy (yeah, I'm a freak). I find that they both have a lot of similarities. What got me thinking about this? An e-mail I received yesterday about the soon coming of the end times reminded me a lot of folks who try to predict the direction of the market. Here's what the e-mail said:
..Last Wednesday during a fast, the Lord spoke the words to me,
..."3 weeks until the dam bursts loose" I got the impression that it
...was slightly more - as in the 1st week of August.
...I believe He meant in the spirit and in the natural.
...I asked Him to confirm it. I had 3 direct confirmations 3 days in a
...row and one indirect one.
...The 3 direct ones were:
...Wednesday 1) My gas pump stopped at $33.00 even - without me
...trying or looking at it.
...Thursday night 2) I jolted awake at 3:30 am
...Friday 3) I had a client make a 3:30 appointment - the first one all
...summer for this time. She chose the time, as I had left the whole
...day wide open to her.
...Then, on Monday (I think), the Lord reminded me my birthday is 3/30.
...Last night, in the middle of the night, I heard the words, "2 weeks, 3 days".
...However, I was so tired and they did not register at the time. I only
...remembered them after I woke up. I DID hear them , though. Was it my
...own thought process or was it the Holy Spirit? I do not know, although I
...really think it was the Holy Spirit. It was somehow different than my own
...thoughts. More of an impression with the words, if you know what I mean.
That sounds like a lot of traders I know who think they've got an inside track on how the markets work. They use news, charts, rumors, or "gut feelings" to determine where things are headed. They often promote their "Trade You Way to Millions in Less Than A Year" schemes and sucker people in just like those who say they have a direct link to God do.
Trading is hard work. It takes patience, diligence, and knowledge. There are a few crazy traders out there who get rich quickly and effortlessly (I'm not one of them). But the majority put in hours of effort while avoiding the soothsayers who claim to have a direct link to Mr. Market.
With Biblical issues like prophecy, it doesn't take long to get way off track if you listen to what others think. You've got to figure out what makes sense to you by doing the legwork yourself. The same goes for trading. The only way to create a system that works for you is to design one that makes sense to you (and maybe no one else). You'll never stick to a system that somebody else designs because when the big loss comes you'll be disgusted with it and bail.
PCP has finally left my screening lists after a pretty swell 6 month run. It made around 60% during that time. Thanks PCP.
This week brings VSEA back into the fold. It mocked me last week by gaining around 20% the week after I sold it. I don't know what I am going to do with it this week yet.
SYNL still remains on one of my screens despite a 50% decline. Something is there fundamentally, but it sure has been a dog as of late. It popped 10% for a few hours last week when they reported decent earnings, but it went back to its usual declines. I'm avoiding it this week unless it shows a change of character.
It should be an interesting week so best of luck to all of you. Happy trading!
This was a pretty wild week. I started to drift off course a bit and made some poor decisions. Overall, though, I'm happy with most of the decisions I made--the portfolio was up 3.11%.
My best screen continues to rock. To the Moon added another 8.03% which is the only reason I made money this week. I am too much of a coward to go whole-hog into the To The Moon screen because the returns beyond this year are the result of backtesting. My cowardice has cost me as I continue to dabble with some of the stocks the screen suggests, but I am happy with the amount of hedging it has provided me over the past month.
Like an idiot, I bought a couple of stocks that didn't appear on my screens, but were listed on blogs of folks who know (or appear to know) what they're doing. Needless to say, I lost on all of them. I did the same thing last year at this time and lost my shirt then too. Maybe I've gotten too much sun.
I'm not sure when this is going to end, but I sure am enjoying the ride. Today the portfolio was up 2.21%.
I went from being down 2% to making a whole $13.59 today.
I'm starting to creep back into my old mistakes again. I bought a stock because it was bought by somebody else. It didn't appear on my screens. I got impatient and wanted to share the wealth. It drug me down today. Idiot.
The good news is that I've held out a bit on knee-jerk purchases this week. I've kept about 30% of my account in cash. I've got a couple of buy stops set on some of the screen candidates in case one of them has a big day.
I owned VSEA for two stinking months and it gave me nothing but trouble. I sold it last week and it mocked me today by gaining 10%. Typical.
Not a bad day for the portfolio--up 1.60%. The "To The Moon" screen is screaming again. It's up 4.5% for the week so far.
I tried to cherry-pick a few stocks from my screens today and I ended up picking poorly. My portfolio was down 1.01%.
I'm adding another blog to the list that I read often. It's called Stocks, Trading, Investing: My Ambitions as a Trader and Investor.
It's got a sloppy name and minimal bells and whistles, but I like the guy's style. He has some similar ideas to mine and he shares a lot of information about what he does. One of his picks was up 33% this morning. Check it out.
I've had several e-mails about Stock Investor Pro. This one came today.
Sorry for the multiple emails. I wanted to ask you about Stock Investor Pro. Is it worth the $200 in your opinion? Also, are there backtesting capabilities and the ability to replicate all the
screens on the AAII website?
Mark,
The only way to backtest is to download each weeks' worth of data (about 35mb) and run the program. It's cumbersome and time consuming.
However, the numbers on the AAII website for each screen are accurate (I've tracked them myself to make sure) and every screen except Tiny Titans is included in the Stock Investor Pro software. (Tiny Titans is a two-criteria screen that is very easy to set up on your own).
Howdy everybody. I'm back from vacation.
I had internet access for minutes at a time which allowed me to get quick glimpses of the how my portfolio was doing. I did have access to cable news, (which I don't have at home) and I got a taste for why it is best to go without. People were flipping out about the DOW making all time highs. Monday's drop had gotten everybody worked up that the correction was here, but Thursday's gains changed all that.
It was easy for me to get caught up in all the hoopla, but my portfolio barely budged after Tuesday so I didn't miss much by being unable to monitor things.
I was one of those people that thought things were moving toward some selling so I had some tight stops set. Most of them triggered. By Friday I only owned VSEC and PCP. I'm a bit hesitant to jump back in so I'm going to monitor things on Monday a bit before I make any decisions. I've got a few new stocks showing up on my screens, but not many.
SYNL continues to qualify, but that thing has been a dog for a while now.
I'm pretty happy with how I handled things today. I had many stocks take a big dive (SMTX, TRA, CPLA, SPTN, SYNL) and my decision to tighten my stops and keep my profits worked out very well. I was up 1.20%. I love it when that happens on a down day and I'm getting better at making sure it works out that way.
An OK day. Up 1.5%. I cut my finger on some broken glass and I can barely type. I'm leaving on vacation on Wednesday and this time I won't be able to steal any wireless access. So, I can't guarantee any posting until Saturday. Have a swell week everybody.
Not much has changed on my screens so I'm pretty much sticking with what I've got. I have shored up several of my stops to lock in some of the gains from the last couple of weeks. Generally, when a stock no longer appears on a screen, but has good performance, I'll put a 3% trailing stop on it. This allows me to take further gains if they occur and gives me a quick exit if things start to head south.
It has been one month since I purchased Zacks Research Wizard and I've had many inquiries into how I like it. As most of you know, I'm an avid user of AAII's Stock Investor Pro and I like it very much. I will continue to use it because it has proven itself over the last few years and I've found the folks at AAII to be reliable and the information in Stock Investor Pro to be accurate (and profitable).
To be fair, I have very limited experience with Research Wizard. However, I have been able to run a bunch of backtesting and various screens over the last month and three of the four stocks listed in my "To the Moon" portfolio are stocks I pulled from Research Wizard screens that I've put together.
First I'll let you know what I like:
It's Fast.
With Stock Investor Pro I get information on a weekly basis that I have to download to my computer. I then have to unpack the file and run the screens using the program.
With Research Wizard, the data is centralized on Zacks servers. When I run a screen, my computer (which must be online) grabs information from the server and displays the results in one to two seconds. Even backtesting huge amounts of information only takes a minute or two at the most. That's cool.
Backtesting.
It used to take me hours (or even days) to test a theory I had about a particular screen. I often had to go through old spreadsheets or hard copies to figure out how particular ideas performed. Stock Investor Pro has no backtesting capability built in. To test ideas I would download historical data (on a weekly or monthly basis) and run the software to see what stocks met criteria.
With the backtesting, the process is almost instantaneous. That gives me the freedom to dream up an idea and test it almost immediately. I know that backtesting has its problems and inaccuracies, but it can give a very good idea of what works and what doesn't.
It's very easy to use.
I've worked with several screening programs. Some make my eyes glaze over as I read all of the mathematical formulas that I need to punch in to create a screen. Research Wizard is extremely intuitive. I really like the ability to pare down my screens and find the "Top" stock in a certain percentage, relative strength, volume, etc.
What I don't like:
It's expensive.
At $133 per month, it doesn't make sense to use it unless it is helping you to beat the market substantially. The verdict is still out on whether or not Research Wizard will make my trading better, but the results of the "To the Moon" screen so far suggest that the possibility exists.
Marketing for Research Wizard is confusing.
I'm not an idiot, but I had a hard time weeding through the Research Wizard web site to get the information that I needed. The folks on the phone are much more helpful (they have to be to make a sale), but I would have appreciated knowing the price up front ($1,600 per year). Also, there is an add-on that allows more complex backtesting that I assumed was included in that price. It isn't. It's $1,600 MORE. It looked interesting but I couldn't justify the price, yet.
I feel a bit isolated.
With the amount of information that Research Wizard generates, I'd expect to see some sort of community or forum dedicated to sharing winning strategies or interesting ideas. Zacks sends an e-mail every day, but it's kind of a conglomeration of all Zacks does. I love information and I would like to see more coming from Zacks about Research Wizard.
Well, that's my take so far on Research Wizard. I'll continue to keep you up to date about my satisfaction in upcoming months.
This week illustrates why mechanical trading often trumps putting lots of intellectual labor into choosing stocks. Conventional wisdom suggested that this was a very poor week to trade.
Things turned out OK at the close. My portfolio was up 1.16%
My friend Sean has been extolling the virtues of IESV.OB for the past month now. Apparently it's a company that harvests methane from cow manure. The stock is at about 5 cents and he's hoping that it climbs to a dollar. Maybe a few of you could by $10 worth and make the stock pop a couple of times to get him excited.
I've traded over the counter stocks in the past and I have had some success (I bought TRLG at $2.58), but I avoid them now. They are WAY too volatile and too hard to control. I've only had one pass my screens since 2005 and it lost 50% the couple of weeks that I owned it.
Sean thinks I'm insane, but I generally don't have any idea what the companies do when I buy the stock. I get too emotional when I'm rooting for a company because it makes a good product. I'd rather just trade symbols and let the fundamentals speak for themselves.
My portfolio came screaming out of the gate this morning and my heart started racing a bit as I was up nearly 2%. Of course, I had to look again at lunchtime and I've given back most of that.
Charles Kirk posted a good article about being a perpetual student. He used a golf analogy. I don't like golf, but it made sense.
I've been using Zack's Research Wizard for about a month now. I'm putting together a "review" for this weekend.
I hope everybody had a swell 4th of July. I did.
I didn't realize that the market was closing early today so I couldn't figure out why my stocks we're staying the same for so long.
I lost .88%.
This was my best day since May 2nd, 2006. My portfolio was up nearly 5%. Yowza. Now let's hope this isn't a repeat of two Mondays ago where I made nearly 5% and lost it all (and more) in the two weeks that followed.
The best performing screen today was the "To The Moon" screen which made 7.09%.
A few readers have expressed that they've been a bit confused by the screens that I posted last week. My intention was to discuss a screen a week in detail.
I've removed one of the screens that came from my playing around with Research Wizard. I think it's a bit too soon for me to post screens based on the Research Wizard because I've used it less than a month and I'd like to test things out over the next year.
The "To The Moon" stock screen is kind of a hybrid using AAII's Stock Investor Pro and Zack's Research Wizard. It encompasses my own ideas about what stocks are about to take off and is a short-term (week to week) trading strategy.
Those of you who are following the screens closely can see that there are just a few changes on the screens from last week. Let's hope this week treats us better than last week did. Weeks with a holiday are usually crummy.
Posts
All Comments
