Monday, August 6, 2007

The market hates me

Charles Kirk wrote about the market's uncanny ability to read your mind and make you look like an idiot. That's what happened to me today. Despite a huge bounce today, my portfolio took a beating. It seemed like I got outfoxed at every turn. I was down 2.17% today.

Somebody made this comment on my post earlier today:

Do you really judge your trading by what happens within a few hours of putting on a trade? Reread Faith's section on outcome bias in his book.

My answer: No, I don't usually judge my trading that way. But when I trade for the wrong reasons (like worrying that I'm going to miss out on a big rally for example) I make major mistakes. That's what happened this morning. I saw a couple of stocks holding their own amidst the carnage of my watch list. I had planned to stay away from things and let them settle down a bit before trading again. Instead, I made some knee-jerk buys at their absolute highs and watched them quickly crumble. I even stopped out of one of them on a day the DOW rose 287 points. The problem wasn't with the trades I made. The problem was with the reason I made them.

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