Saturday, August 30, 2008

Month in Review August 2008



I didn't spend too much time with the market this week. I was busy moving my money from Scottrade to Tradestation (the transition is still not complete). Scottrade shut me down from virtual trading since I no longer had enough money in the account to support it, so Thursday and Friday I was unable to obtain real-time quotes.

My hope is to be up and running next week. I'm excited to begin the next step in my trading and I look forward to learning some new stuff as my account dwindles because of my mistakes.

The month of August went well for me (virtually). I managed an increase of 23.30R for the month. If I would have traded real money, that would put this month as my best ever. Of course when real money is involved, things change. September will be a far better judge of how my system performs.

The Zweig RS 5 screen continues to plummet with another 1.93% loss. The Zweig MACD screen managed to pull out a .53% gain for the week.
Buying the top 5 relative strength stocks at the beginning of the month and holding them through the end of August would have resulted in a 15.61% decline. Not good.

The stats for August:

Total R for the month 23.30
Win percentage 52.31%
Total trades 65
# of days I traded 11
Average # of trades per day 5.91
Average "R" per trading day 2.12
Expectancy for the month .35


Tuesday, August 26, 2008

Bigger must be better

I received three trading books in the mail today (I've got a lot more time now that I'm out of school). The Definitive Guide to Position Sizing is HUGE. The price was huge as well --$150. After paying 150 bucks for books about family therapy, I find it easier to plop down some cash for some books that will actually make me some money.

I'll let you know what I think about each of them after I get done. I'm currently reading Brian Shannon's Technical Analysis Using Multiple Time Frames (I have already read Martin Zwieg's book. I put it down there as a size reference.)

Monday, August 25, 2008

So much for opportunity

I guess today showed you just how much I know. I thought we might see a counter-trend rally in the next couple of days or weeks, but this isn't the best way to start one. I followed my advice and bought some S&P ETFs for my long-term portfolio. That was brilliant. Maybe I'll be proven right. Maybe.

Another thing that sucked today was my virtual trading platform with Scottrade went all wacky on me for 4 hours and I couldn't manage my pretend trades. I ended up the day with -.5R. I think I could have had a lot more if things were working. I'll log this day because I'll probably have messed up days like this when I go "live" in September.

Sunday, August 24, 2008

Opportunity

According to one of the short-term indicators I follow, now might be an OK time to go long. Matching this strategy to a long-only screen strategy has worked well for me in the past. Of course there are no guarantees, but things are starting to look interesting.

Saturday, August 23, 2008

StockPunk answers your questions!?!

Welcome to the second official StockPunk question and answer post! I went back and read the first official StockPunk question and answer post and I was surprised by how much I've changed since then. In a question about technical analysis I responded that TA wasn't "my bag".

Thanks to all of you who asked questions!! Questions about what I do force me to reevaluate and think through some of my decisions and makes me a better man--or something like that. OK, that enough, on with the show:

Why have you abandoned your Zweig stock screening strategy?

I had a few good years of trading using stock screens and they really fit in well with my lifestyle. I still think they are a great way to learn how to trade with minimum effort. They also provide a good way to invest without having to be too active in the market. I am employed full time and can't be close to a computer all the time so stock screens are perfect for me.

But as my passion for the stock market flourished, and I saw stock bloggers who were successfully trading for a living, I began to wonder if I would be able to do it myself. Even though it seemed like an obtainable dream I got a few titters and eye-rolling from family and friends. There’s quite a stigma out there that stock trading is dangerous and foolish.

I thought that I might be able to accomplish a trading lifestyle through stock screening. I felt I could consistently make 20 to 40% a year which would eventually cover all my expenses. When I got kicked in the teeth after the downturn in August 2007, I started wondering if there was a better way to limit my downside risk while still keeping my gains.

I knew that the Zweig screen outperformed marvelously over the long term, but I needed to put some reliability in my system to avoid the big drawdowns. I stumbled upon the Pitbull Investor website which specializes in mechanical investing through screening but also heavily emphasizes chart analysis. The site’s founder, Henry Ford, had just started offering personal mentoring over the phone, so I decided to invest in some trader education. My understanding of the markets and of technical analysis grew in leaps and bounds during our 6 hours of one-on-one instruction and I grew much more comfortable looking at a chart and understanding patterns in stock behavior. Henry also introduced me to the world of options, and I began to trade them as proxies for the stocks I liked.

But, the first six months of 2008 were brutal to my account. I was combining stock screening techniques with the technical analysis that I learned from Henry Ford without success. I had weeks of big gains followed by weeks of big losses. Nothing I did seemed to work, and my dreams of trading for a living were starting to look pretty silly.

Finally, in May things were finally starting to click. I clawed my way out of a 20% deficit to break even. My account was ready to take off, and I thought I was trading a system that was capable of 10% - 20% months and 100% years. My dream of trading for a living was alive and well.

Then the bottom dropped out on me again. In four days I lost nearly all of my gains for the month. I kept thinking each day that it couldn’t drop any further but it did. I was holding several options that were getting hammered and I couldn’t sell them because nobody wanted to buy them. Plus, I thought that the market “had to recover”. I ended up the month with a slight gain, but I wanted to figure out a way to trade where it didn’t matter what happened in the broader market—where I could care less whether the market was up or down.

My ongoing conversations and mentoring with Corey at Afraid to Trade also convinced me that if I was going to do this without the benefit of another job, I was going to have to increase the frequency of my trading and probably look at shorter hold times for my trades. Corey is a futures trader, and he doesn’t care at all about whether the market is up or down, he just wants to see a “trend” either way.

I went back and read some older posts that Ugly and TraderMike had written back when they first started day trading. Their journey toward day trading really seemed similar to mine and how they were trading really started making sense.

Another thing that I had read about on Uglychart.com but didn’t understand was position sizing, expectancy, and risk or “R”. Both Ugly and TraderMike used those terms to measure their success. I read Van K. Tharp’s book, Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom in 2007, but I really didn’t understand the concepts even though I tried to implement them in my stock screening. As my portfolio disintegrated during January and February of this year, I went back to the drawing board and re-read many of the books that I read in the past. I knew that there were some “gems” of wisdom in Van Tharp’s book, and with my wife’s help I began to dissect them to gain a deeper understanding. The concepts are really quite simple, and I’m a bit embarrassed to admit that they were over my head last year.

So that brings us to this summer when I decided that I needed a more dependable system that would allow me to limit my risk on a daily basis and create more frequent trading. I really think this is the best way for me to work toward trading full time. I enjoy the “clean slate” each day. Waking up with no worries about the direction of the market is extremely fulfilling. The money seems to flow much more readily.

I'm going to put all my effort into this, and if it doesn't work, no big deal. If it does work, I'm one step closer to my dreams.

What is does your trading office look like?

Here is my monitor setup.


Just kidding. I trade with a laptop at my dining room table.

What does your trading day look like?

I really don’t start anything until the market opens (9:30 am EST). I print out my watch lists before the open. I don’t make any trades until about 10:30am (market time) and I quit trading at 12:30pm (market time).

I see you scuba dive. What has been your best dive site?

Without a doubt, Fiji was the most amazing place I’ve ever scuba dived.

I’ve never seen anything like it . Incidentally, the dive master that took us diving in Fiji disappeared on a routine dive a year after we went with him—spooky.

What has been your worst day as a trader?

Back in 2006, I noticed that the highest relative strength stock in the Zweig screen always outperformed the rest of the screen (by more than 900%). So I brilliantly deduced that I could just put all of my money in that one stock and laugh all the way to the bank. I lost 9% of my portfolio in one day and decided that my strategy sucked. I was lucky that I didn’t lose more. I’ve learned a lot about risk management and position sizing since then.

Would you recommend any books on technical analysis?

I’ve tried to read books on the subject, but they cause my eyes to glaze over. It’s hard for me to look at charts that are already weeks to years old and that are printed in black and white. I have learned nearly everything about TA (and I assure you—it isn’t much) through stock blogs like the ones I list as my favorites on the side of StockPunk. I would also suggest having a mentor who understands TA take you through a few charts. It has been invaluable to me to have somebody walk me through chart patterns and TA concepts.

What did you get your Masters degree in?

I got a Masters in Human and Family Services. It’s basically a counseling/social work kind of degree. Two years ago, when I began the masters program, my goal was to stay in the counseling field. Now my goal is to trade for a living in the next few years. So I’m not sure what I’ll do with my degree right now.

My bachelors degree is in marketing which was never a good fit for me. I was completely miserable at a few marketing jobs that I had. I literally cried before I went to my first marketing job—I hated it that much. I haven’t used my marketing degree for the past 13 years, so we’ll see if I ever use my masters. If anything, I’m able to use a lot of what I learned in my current job as a counselor of teenagers.

What would be your advice to someone who is just starting out as a trader?

Don’t believe the hype. Trading is hard work. It takes a lot of time to learn. It can be financially dangerous. It probably won’t make you rich.

But if you love to do it, none of those things will matter and the money will eventually come.

Can you explain your “narrow candle” system a little better?

Many readers have asked about the “narrow candle” system that I’ve been using recently. It’s a daytrading system developed and shared by Maoxian back in early 2000. He called the posts “trading for dummies” and Ugly from Uglychart.com went on to term them “Dummy Trades”.

I first became interested when Ugly took it on as a personal trading system for himself in 2006. I was really into stock screening and mechanical investing during that time, and I considered technical analysis a sort of “voodoo” way of analyzing stocks. I preferred the “hard science” of stock screens with all their cool formulas (most of which I didn’t understand).

Ugly has a ton of examples of what the narrow candle trades are all about. Basically, I look at overall market direction first. Then I look for stocks that are trending with the overall market. I look for gaps in the direction of the overall market along with higher than average volume.

I use several watch lists to determine what stocks I plan to follow that day. I use a couple of stock screens (I just can’t give them up), along with high alpha stocks from Barchart.com. I also use real time scans from TradeIdeas.


Friday, August 22, 2008

Week In Review 8-22-08

I was at the hospital all day with a kid that I work with, and although the hospital offered internet access, I didn't feel right about streaming real time quotes using someone else's connection. When I got home at 2pm, there weren't many stocks on my watch list that I would have taken anyway. So, no big deal.

My fake account brought in 11.76R this week which makes me much more confident that I'm making the right move. To trade for a living I need around 5R to 6R per month. For August, I'm up 23.86R so far. We'll see if my success continues, but right now things are looking pretty good.

I went back and read a bunch of Ugly's posts from 2006. He made 40R during one of the first few months he started trading. He struggled for the next several months, so I need to take this success with a grain of salt. A lot will change when I start using real money.

Both Zweig screens suffered drawdowns this week. Zweig RS 5 is was down 3.26% while the Zweig MACD screen was down 1.61%.


Thursday, August 21, 2008

I'll take it

Another good day in terms of "R" value. I took 9 trades and made 3.53R. After reading Fooled by Randomness, I'm getting worried that a successful August (so far) is just the result of dumb luck.

I've already received several questions for Saturday's questions & answers post. Keep them coming!

Wednesday, August 20, 2008

StockPunk Questions and Answers This Saturday

I've been receiving a lot of questions about how I'm trading lately and since I just finished my masters degree (yay me), I now have some time to answer them. So for the next couple of days, you can send your questions to stockpunk@yahoo.com. Saturday I will attempt to answer all of the questions that I receive.

Please remember that I'm pretty much an idiot, so you might want to keep your questions simple.

What a mess

That was one sloppy market day. I scanned for stocks for three hours and came up with zilch. I made a trade on ENER just because it was the best looking chart that I saw. It didn't give me a very good setup, but I took it anyway and made a (lucky) 2R.

Here is the 5 minute chart of ENER with a couple of low-risk places that you could have entered the trade.

Tuesday, August 19, 2008

No time to trade

I guess one of the drawbacks to daytrading is you have to be around when the market is open. Today I had several unexpected things come up, so I wasn't able to comfortably make any decisions.

HOG had a good setup this morning and would have made 5R had I taken it. I didn't see any other good setups today, but I only had about 15 minutes to look.

Monday, August 18, 2008

Another good one

I decided to stick to virtual trading today. It would have been a good day to put some money to work. I made a virtual 6.2R.

Below is a dumb trade I made today losing 1R. I really had no reason to buy this stock (TITN) besides the volume surge at the open. The market was trending down and I thought that this would make a good counter-trend play. I had done well with this stock in the past and my bias directed me into a dumb trade. Notice there are no narrow candles near where I bought--just dumb.
I made over 3R shorting ENER. It was a much better play that made more sense both on the 30 minute and 5 minute charts.

Friday, August 15, 2008

Week In Review 8-15-08

This was another good week for pretend trading. I ended up making 7 times my risk on 18 "trades". Since the beginning of August, I have 48 trades under my belt with a 14.88R return (not including commissions). Expectancy so far is .31 which isn't too shabby.

I plan to return to using real money next week.

The Zweig RS 5 screen had another tough one with a 5.05% loss. The Zweig MACD screen made .79%.
I've been keeping Zweig stocks on my watch list and two of them made pretend money for me this week. MSO on Thursday had a swell setup that made 6.88R. Today AMED set up for a 3.4R day.

Wednesday, August 13, 2008

Broke Even

I was making money until the market turned around for a bit. I ended up breaking even (virtually) for the day.

Tuesday, August 12, 2008

Too busy to trade

I had too much going on today for pretend trading. AMED was on my watch list (unfortunately it is a Zweig top 5 RS stock) but I didn't put in a pretend trade on it since I figured I wouldn't have time to pretend sell it.

It would have been a good one. If you sold short after the 12:30 candle at about $65 with a stop at $65.50 held it through the close you would have risked 50 cents per share. If you held until the close you would have made $10.57 per share or 21.46R. That's a nice setup.

I didn't find too many other setups today as the market kind of meandered back and forth.

Monday, August 11, 2008

An encouraging day

Man, I wish my money wasn't pretend today. I made a "virtual" 7.8R.

Here is an example of one of my "trades". I bought at $33.75 with a stop at $33.55 which risked 20 cents per share. I sold at $35.44 which is a difference of $1.69 per share. That's a gain of 8.45 times my risk.

Since the money was pretend, I made some boneheaded trades just to get a feel for what works and what doesn't. So far, stocks that are under $10.00 have been really hard to make any money on. I find I get stopped out rather quickly.


I also practiced scaling out of my trades today, and two of them paid off well. AMZN was up 10R when I "sold" part of the position. The stock came down pretty hard after that. I pretended to sell a position in BBY as well and that would have paid off as the stock came back down.

I'm trying to find a broader indicator to let me know when to take profits. Since I'm trading in the direction of the indexes, I'm toying with the idea of selling when the trend in the index loses strength (like when the 20 period EMA is crossed).

I'm still learning, but I've been encouraged so far.

Sunday, August 10, 2008

This week with StockPunk

Despite the counter-trend rally that were seeing as of late, I still plan to pretend trade for a while longer. Let me assure you that I'm chomping at the bit to get back in, and I'm bothered that I may be missing out on some gains. But, this is the best thing for me right now.

In his latest newsletter, Van K. Tharp says "Given that everything is psychological, success in the markets is 60% discipline, 30% position sizing, and 10% system. You can have a great system that will be destroyed by mistakes created by a lack of discipline."

I need to work on the discipline aspect of my trading, so I plan to spend a while just pretending.

The Zweig screen has 20 candidates this week which is the most I've seen in some time. I take that as a good sign as the Zweig screen looks at growing companies that have good value.

It's still a tricky market out there. The indexes are still in a downtrend and there are still some scary things that the market is facing. But for the immediate future, things are looking better and it's worth a shot to go long for a bit.


Friday, August 8, 2008

Week In Review

The indexes may have done pretty well this week, but the Zweig screen got killed. It just doesn't do very well in see-saw market action like we saw all week. Equally weighted the screen lost 5.99% for the week.

The Zweig MACD did a little better coming in at +2.04% this week thanks to big gains in MSO and SUNH.

My account remains the same as I decided to have use virtual money this week. In terms of "R" value, my account came out up 5.10R. That's not bad. I'm always surprised when I run numbers at the end of the week.

I'm shooting for a 10 to 15 R gain per month, so this is a good start and I'm encouraged to continue hashing things out (especially after seeing the loss in the Zweig screen). I plan to have at least 100 virtual trades under my belt before committing to a trading program. 100 trades should give me a pretty good idea of what I can expect from my trading over time.

Thursday, August 7, 2008

I hate downtrends

I started trading in March of 2003. I had absolutely no idea what I was doing. Some would argue that I still don't.

The market has been in an uptrend since then and my love for long position trades was rewarded by the trending market. Things have changed, and we are officially in a downtrending market. I've never traded in this kind of market, and my frustration and confusion has demonstrated that I haven't been around long enough to know quite what to do.

The Zweig screen did quite well in the last downtrend (2000-2003), and it will probably do well (eventually) in this one (chart is from AAII.com). I don't intend to abandon my bread and butter. I'll continue to keep an eye on different screening ideas.

I'm trying to develop some flexibility so that I can face new market situations without the frustration that I've experienced this year. I love to screen for stocks, and I love mechanical investing. It just isn't working for me in this environment, so I'm trying something different.

Fake down day


I lost .86R in my pretend trading account today. Boy, this daytrading stuff sure seemed easier when I was looking at charts in retrospect. I think with phony money I took trades that weren't quite up to snuff. It's easier to do without real money on the line. I'm learning, and I think it will take a few months before I'm comfortable with this style of trading.

Stocks above their 200 day moving average seem to be leveling out and growing in number a bit.

This market can't seem to make up its mind on where it wants to go. Things seem a bit stuck right now as we wait for a break up or down. The DOW shows resistance at the 11650 level and a break above that could invalidate what looks like a Bear Flag formation. Look out below if we break things to the downside.

Wednesday, August 6, 2008

Which Broker?

Anonymous guy replied to my last post with this:

Well, you probably can't be a daytrader paying $7 a trade. You'd need to consider Interactive Brokers or Tradestation or something similar.Actually $7 is too much if you are trading weekly screens too.

I've been thinking about this and wondered what everybody out there uses for trading and why. Just reply to this post. I think it will give everybody some good ideas (including me).

I'll start:

I use Scottrade because I'm comfortable with it and have been using it for 5 years. I'm the type of guy who feels weird about moving my money from place to place even if it means saving some money. I'm familiar with Scottrade Elite and I like the way it works (I really have nothing to compare it to). I like the guys at the office here in Omaha.

I'm realizing though that there are greener pastures out there. Seven bucks is a bit much for daytrading. Trader Mike says that he pays per-share commissions and saves a lot. I've read that other brokers offer 4 times my principle for margin (Scottrade only offers two times). Scottrade doesn't offer futures trading (which interests me).

So that's me and I'm dumb. What do you brilliant traders out there use?

Commissions are eating up my profit

I've decided to go back to virtual trading until I have 100 to 200 "trades" under my belt. I've been risking far fewer dollars, but when I make 4 trades a day it eats up $56. That's not a big deal when I'm risking $1,000 per trade. But when I'm risking $100, it doesn't make sense.

So, my plan is to figure out an expectancy for my system so that I can get an idea of what I should risk (and if I should even trade the system). I'll let you know when I get it figured out.

Today I lost 1.83 times my risk. I forced several trades against my better judgment. I should have done better.

Tuesday, August 5, 2008

Missed the rally

I had some unexpected meetings today so I wasn't able to lock in any positions. It seems like I do better when the market isn't experiencing a strong trend anyway, so I'm not too disappointed.

Yesterday things worked out pretty well. I had a +4.21R day on four stocks, UNP (long), CLF (short) , FRO (short), & WLT (short).