Dang It!

I just can't seem to catch a break, and I'm guessing a lot of traders are feeling that way. I felt pretty good about getting some of my money back today after my stupid decisions yesterday. I looked things up after lunch and YIKES! After the S&P broke through 1425 I got a little panicky and sold most of my positions. I probably should have waited for the August lows (around 1406) but I didn't one to compound my dumb decisions of yesterday.

We'll see how things close. It looks like things are coming back a bit right now. What a confusing market.

This is good though. I am learning a lot about trading in a really volatile market that is making everyone (including me) scratch their heads.
You'll notice that the S&P is getting dangerously close to the "time to get out" indicator (where the Price line (red and black) meets the 20 month moving average (blue bar).

This indicator does a pretty good job of predicting long term trends. Note that the last time the lines intersected was mid-2003 when this bull market started. The next couple of months should give us a good idea if this bull is over for a while.

Hopefully it won't last for 3 years like the last time. Or maybe we'll have a repeat of 1998 where it bounced off and went on to new heights for the next two years. Time will tell. The important thing is to be careful out there.