Saturday, January 19, 2008

How soon I forget . . .

After another awful week for my portfolio and for the screens I follow, I assumed that this was probably the worst four weeks in trading for me and for the screens. So I went all the way back to August 2004 (when I first started tracking performance) and discovered that this downturn wasn't unique, and it wasn't the worst.

In fact the Zweig RS 5 screen had a MUCH worse four weeks back in AUGUST 2008--just 5 months ago. It lost a whopping 26% during that downturn--compared with 19% (so far--from the beginning of December until now) during this one. Things could still get worse, but it really puts in perspective what a short-term thinker I am.

I was writing this year off as the first losing year I've ever had (since 2003) and we aren't even four weeks into the year. Last year the Zweig RS 5 screen made 46% without any sort of stop management--even with a 26% downturn more than half way through the year.

I don't think it's quite time to jump back in, but I do think that once the dust settles we have an amazing opportunity to buy a lot of good stocks for some very good prices.

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