Week In Review 6-27-08

I'm glad that one is over. My portfolio lost another 1.29% today as I continued to stop out of my last few positions. For the week I lost 2.18% which wasn't too awful considering what the indexes lost. According to Charles Kirk, the Dow dropped -4.19%, the S&P 500 declined -3.00%, Nasdaq -3.76%, and the Russell 2000 -3.80%.

The Zweig RS 5 screen lost 5.26% this week led by AEHR's 21% decline.

I'll be out of town until Wednesday, so I'm not sure if I'll be able to post (or monitor the market).

Fighting the urge

I'm trying to resist trading this morning. After an awful day like yesterday there are usually some stocks on my watch list that are ripe for the picking. I think it's better for me to wait a bit longer before I jump in full throttle.

We didn't see a bear capitulation yesterday so I wonder if we're truly done with the downside. Many good traders are seeing this awful month as a great opportunity to make some money in July. I agree with them, but I'm going to wait until next week before I get my feet wet.

The news this morning said that this is the worst one month drop (in June--thanks StumpJump) since the great depression. I guess there's nothing like learning how to trade in the worst month in 80 years!! Be careful out there!

I told you things suck

What a day! Not much went right today for pretty much anyone (unless you were shorting). I came out OK despite being long (someday I'll learn to short). I lost 1.11% as the major indexes tumbled more than 3%. I'll take it.

So far this month the DOW has lost 9.3%. The good news for me is that I've lost less than 1% this month. In all my years of trading I have always lost more than two times what the indexes lose. I was 19% in the hole back in March.

That's been OK because I've usually made 8 to 10 times what the indexes gained (in the past few years). If I can limit my losses like this and keep the gains I make, I'll be a much better trader in the long run (and I'll make a lot more money). So for me, this month has a silver lining. I've done a better job at preserving my capital, and I'll live to fight another day when the market is giving me excellent odds.

I have no idea where we go from here. There isn't much good news anywhere so there is hardly anything to move this market upward right now. The media is wallowing in bad news, and the public is eating it up.

I'm not smart enough to know if things really are that dire. But I do know the market has been through worse things and it has always recovered very nicely for people who were willing to take some risks and who were patient enough to wait out the nastiness.

Ho Hum

I had an OK day. I made about .35%. Around lunch time I was down about a percent and a half.

Tomorrow could be a bit of a disaster. I decided to hold RIMM through earnings and they didn't have very good results (missed earnings but made revenue). Oh well. I'll live to fight another day.

The Zweig screen had a pretty good day except for AEHR.

I've enjoyed reading Harry Domash's site over the last couple of years. He has a nice question and answer post this week.

I've changed StockPunk's Market Meter to "frowny face". Things suck.

Nastiness under the surface

Nearly all the stocks on my watchlist were down 3% or more today despite the overall market's modest decline. I don't know if that is a bad sign or a good one (do I ever?). My portfolio lost almost 1 percent today. I'm not digging this.

The Zweig RS 5 portfolio was down another 1.71% today.

We'll see if tomorrow brings some of the end-of-the-quarter window dressing that everyone's talking about.

It's not getting much better

The Zweig portfolio took a beating today. Even though the market traded sideways, the Zweig RS 5 portfolio lost 1.66%. Ouch.

My day went OK. I made .88%.

I withdrew some money from my portfolio for the first time in a year. Owning a house is expensive. I'd forgotten how much I dislike paying for heat, water, electricity, and property taxes. It's been over 10 years since I've paid for any of those things, so this will probably take some getting used to.

I'd like to get back to as few financial obligations as I can before I begin trading for a living. I'd like to have the house paid for, and I think that would alleviate much of the stress that comes from not having a steady income.

This Week with StockPunk 6-22-08

After a bruising end to the week I'm not so keen at jumping back in full throttle. The Zweig screen has 7 candidates this week which is half of its average. That may mean there is opportunity or it may mean that the market sucks.

Charles Kirk is hinting that conditions are ripe for a moderate rally this week. We'll see, but caution is probably the best way of traversing this market right now.

Week In Review 6-20-2008

According to the Kirk Report--Since last Friday, the Dow declined -3.78%, the S&P 500 declined -3.78%, Nasdaq -1.97%, and the Russell 2000 -1.07%.

Considering how the indexes did this week, I'd have to call this week a success. I made 2.48%. Today I lost 1.76%, despite my lightweight portfolio, so I'm glad I wasn't loaded up. I'm in a much better position now than I was when the indexes were flirting with this level back in mid-March. On March 10th I was down nearly 20%!

I was able to beat my screens this week which rarely happens. The Zacks and Zweig screen continues to outperform the others and it gained again this week. That screen has been a great indicator of when to be in and out of this market and overall it's performance has screamed compared to the broader market. You have to take it's performance with a grain of salt, however, because many weeks had only one or two stocks meeting criteria which is way to risky for a portfolio.

There's chatter about end of the month window dressing moving this market back up in the next couple of weeks. I know this was a particularly volatile week because of options expiration and stuff, so who knows what the future holds. I'm not too happy about testing the March lows, and there's hardly any good news to turn this thing around.

The chart I use for short-term decision-making is about to turn bearish. We had a good run from April 3rd, but it looks like momentum is drying up and it's time to get defensive again.

This whole thing is wearing me out, but this is the time when I learn the most. We'll have turnaround again, and I'll be even more prepared to make some decent money.

Indecision

I lost .83% today.

I had a hard time deciding what I wanted to do today. Some of my best performers took a dive today which is what I was anticipating (it always seems to happen that way). I got out at OK prices, and I didn't get whipsawed, but I continue to question my methods. The next couple of weeks will verify if I made the right decision or not.

My main goal was to maintain some of the gains that I made over the last few days. I've been unable to find the "sweet spot" between letting my profits run and avoiding big losses (including giving up big gains). I've developed a better trading journal with automatic updates in Excel, and that has really helped me with my decision making. I just wish it made EVERY decision for me. I guess that wouldn't be any fun, would it?

I'm uncomfortable with this downtrending market right now. I know there will be opportunities this summer and later on this year, so it is starting to make sense to avoid fighting this tape and get a little more strategic in my trades.

STOP IT!!

I'm growing tired of watching the indexes self destruct as the news continues to emphasize what's wrong with everything. Now when people find out I trade, they 0ffer their sympathies.

Despite the drop today, my portfolio held together pretty well. I lost less than the indexes (.89%) which isn't much to brag about, but I'm certainly much better off today being down half of what the indexes are than I was in mid-March where I was down more than double what they were.

I trying to learn how to read the broader market while attempting to understand patterns in individual stocks. I continue to learn from Corey at Afraid to Trade through his tutoring service and I have been very pleased with what I've learned and what Corey offers.

Hello Again . . .

I apologize for my lack of posts lately. I thought school was a good excuse and then the market started sucking and that became my excuse. I will try to do a better job of keeping you informed about what's going on (as if you care). I know I enjoy looking at The Kirk Report, Ugly Chart, Stockbee, and others several times a day, and I'm disappointed when something new doesn't pop up. Charles Kirk is probably the best at having multiple posts every day so I rely heavily on his take on things each day.

I've actually had the best three-day stretch I've had in a long time. I've gained over 8 % since last Thursday which usually means that I am about to get my buttocks kicked. I'm going to hang in tight and we'll see what happens.

I've changed my strategy a bit lately after selling a couple of stocks too soon. I sold SQNM at 9.11 after gaining 20% on it. I had a trailing stop that grabbed most of that gain, but then the stupid thing went on to new highs that would have looked good in my portfolio.

The mantra we hear all the time in trading is "sell your losers and let your winners run". I sold this winner, and many others too soon. So, this month I'm using a scaling in technique on all my stocks that have gained one or more times what I risked. The last few days have worked out well as I've let my winners run. Here are a couple, AGU and CF:

Mark's Question

Scott-

Can you go through what subscriptions you use other than AAII and Research Wizard?

Also, have you been more successful trading in and out of the Zweig screen as opposed to simply buying Monday at the open and holding.

Thanks,
Mark

I'm sorry I haven't been posting lately. The market has put me in a sour mood and nothing I'm doing seems to be working. This is the most frustrating six months that I've experienced in the last five years and I've been through a lot of frustrating times I assure you.

The only other subscriptions I have currently are to StockFetcher, Pitbull Investor, and Trade4Cash. I use StockFetcher to find stocks that meet my criteria--it is extremely easy to use and I get instant results. It's also extremely cheap for what it offers.

I use Pitbull Investor and Trade4Cash to gather ideas different from my own. I'm trying to go beyond screening into some technical analysis, and I gain a great deal of insight from both services (they are also both extremely reasonable for what they offer).

I have NOT been successful with making my own decisions using the Zweig screen. Aside from paring the whole screen down to 5 to 10 candidates based on relative strength and the Zacks ranking, every other attempt at improving the screen or setting productive stops have ended in disaster (I exaggerate--but you get the idea) for me.

I have ALWAYS been beat by the screens despite my brilliant attempts at making them better. This year has been particularly bad for me because I've been trying other ideas and ignoring the screens and I am getting my clock cleaned while the screens once again out-perform the market.

Losing my shirt

I haven't had much to write about lately. I keep losing money and am now down over 10% for the year. I'm compounding my mistakes and I'm getting a bit frustrated.

What the FLIP was that? Week in Review 6-6-08

Things were looking pretty sweet for me until today. I made .70% for the week after losing 3.46% today. I had a good pick in SQNM from my own research. I had a trailing stop on it and got out after a 20% gain. It went on to gain over 30% more yesterday and today. I think I need to change my strategy a bit.

The Zweig RS screen beat me again, of course. It made 3.75% for the week after falling 2.6% today. Once again my overthinking cost me. I hesitated on a clear signal for AEHR which made nearly 19% this week. GHM also had a good week gaining 8.69%. I didn't own it either.

Zweig MACD suffered a 3.37% loss for the week with ESL pulling it down 9.87%.

The major indexes are sucking wind again this year. After breaking even at the beginning of May they are back down to mid-April levels.

The good news for me is that I'm holding up pretty good despite the market's insanity. I'm even with the indexes which I don't mind when the market has been so erratic. I don't like to be even with the indexes when the bulls are running, but when the bears are in control, I'm satisfied to lose what the indexes lose.

Maybe someday I'll be able to make money no matter what the markets do. I think it's extremely difficult to do, but I know there are individual traders who do it. There's certainly no way I could trade for a living if I went nearly 6 months with no gains (besides drawing down my equity). We'll see how the rest of the year pans out, but this has been the most difficult year I've had trading.

Just another crazy day

I was way up this morning and feeling pretty good, and then I was way down this afternoon and feeling pretty bad, and then I ended up making a few bucks as the broader market stumbled.

The Zweig Top 5 Relative Strength stocks are up over 4% today after the market has had two straight days of losses. You unemotional investors are making a killing. Guys like me who can't stick to a system to save their lives have been getting their teeth kicked in. When will we learn?

A reader commented this morning:

"I'm doing a bad job of following this system too. I should have bought AEHR this week...I didn't because Scottrade wouldn't let me without a live broker...so I said..forget it. Dumb...it's up over 7% at the moment today.
So, had I bought GHM and AEHR I'd be having a great week so far...instead I'm down for the week...the system works...the system works....follow the system......"

That sounds sooooooo much like me--even today! I've followed the system for three years and I still think I can outsmart it. AEHR had a perfect entry point yesterday (it broke out of its consolidation pattern) and I skipped it because it was too much work to call my broker (I use Scottrade as well). Stupid.

This Week With StockPunk

I hand in my comprehensive exams tomorrow (I'm still working on them), so I should be able to post more often after that--not that anyone really missed me.

AAII's Zweig screen only has 9 candidates this week. The screen had a fantastic week last week and is doing much better than my portfolio is.

The screen had no Zack's #1 candidates this week. This has been a rough year for Zack's rank. Last year the Zweig screen was averaging 5 a week. This year it has barely been one a week. Interesting.

I show 3 stocks with bullish MACDs this week.

There are a couple of Zweig stocks with interesting chart patterns. AEHR has set up a long pendant pattern. It will be interesting to see where it breaks out.

I've asked AAII permission to list the results of the Zweig screen each week. So far I haven't heard back from them.

To The Moon Laid To Rest

I've tracked my To the Moon screen for a few years now and it's time to let it go. My intent in creating the screen was to show that even a simpleton like myself could put together a winning screen if it was followed without emotion. Since September of 2005 the screen has made over 300% compounded.

The screen was made up of the highest Relative Strength stocks in four different screens I ran. One screen was AAII's Zweig screen and the other three were Screens from Zacks Research Wizard. I just took the highest Relative Strength stock of these three screens:

bt sow best buys
bt sow big money
bt sow filtered zacks

This was a "buy on Monday sell on Friday" stock screen that did very well in a pretty lame market. I wanted to show that there are opportunities in the market for individual traders who don't have a lot of time and who don't want to have to monitor the market on a consistent basis.

My subscription to Research Wizard runs out this summer and I don't intend to renew. I think Research Wizard is a great product, but for me it is too pricey and I don't like that it doesn't have an established community of users who share ideas and information.

I will continue to use AAII's Stock Investor Pro as I work on new ideas while following the simple screens that I've been watching for the last several years.