Thursday, February 5, 2009

Day Four-- Pigs get slaughtered

Whenever I get a little cocky, the market teaches me an unpleasant lesson. Today it whipped my buttocks thoroughly. I'm OK with a few trades that I made, but I made some boneheaded decisions today based on my bias that the market would go down hard today--another lesson to avoid the news and sentiment and just follow the chart.

Learn from my mistakes:

We started out the day with a gap which I attempted to fade and quickly stopped out with those two down bars. I'm OK with that trade.

Trade two was a divergence trade back to the 20EMA after a new low for the day. That one worked out (I love divergence trades). Back to even.

I was flabbergasted to watch price continue through the 20EMA (green line) and then the 50EMA (blue line). "There's no way it will break over the 200 (red line)!" I thought to myself. I shorted on the doji (trade 3) at about 11:05am. I should have targeted yesterday's close which would have been more logical than the 50EMA. It hit yesterday's close and went on to stop me out on the big up bar around noon.

Then I got all stupid and started taking edgeless trades. I took two (not shown) "it can't go any higher!" trades which stopped out as it DID go higher. Just dumb.

My next trade (#4) was a good one except I was pushing for just a few more bucks (I'm a pig). I shorted after the new high at about 12:15pm on a slight momentum divergence and targeted the 20EMA. Price mocked me as it neared the 20 and headed back up. Corey Rosenbloom told me that I should set my targets just a tad less aggressively since I'm missing them by pennies at times. I should have listened.

I lost 3R for the day which sucks because I decided today to double my position size to .5% of my portfolio value. It always seems to work that way.

No comments: