Flat on a trend day
There were so many opportunities out there today to go short, but nearly every one I took didn't work. I ended the day up about .36R.
I've never traded the indexes, but the DIA set up a nice bear flag about 12:30. It went on to make the target near the close after reversing for a bit. A stop on the declining 50MA would have insured a decent risk/reward return.
I was up over $1,000 on two stocks today. After moving my stops to break even, they -- broke even. I can't seem to get the knack for how to manage my stops so I can avoid losing but also keep my profits. Sometimes I wonder whether it would be better during this volatile market period to grab 1R profits whenever they appear.
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I like trailing stops, especially when a stock has moved up or is a holding that no longer passes a screen.
However, I am generally avoiding screens selections as the volatility in the markets is insane. My macro model called a "negative return environment" in early Jan so my positions were about 20% of their normal size. I've learned that I need to add a new variable which is the VIX. Over 30, I will trade during the day and only want to hold ETFS overnight/weekend.
One really cheap stock that came up was PCR. The volatility blew out the initial stops! My new strategy for some of they is to write short-dated puts below the trading price so I can earn premium if it goes up and will own it a little cheaper if it gets exercised. Normally I wouldn't do this, but the very high levels of volatility have made this work though you have to be patient with the option bid/offer.
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