Bulls won't give up

I wanted to point out a great setup on a trade today that eventually fell apart. I credit the buyers who remain able to push this top-heavy market higher yet.

I've detailed a "short" trade in SPY that set up today at 3pm EST. Here's what the trade had going for it (click on the chart to see more detail).

• A "3 push pattern" into the highs of the day (check out Corey Rosenbloom's take on the "3 push" that occurred today)
  
• A new momentum low
• A new TICK low
• A bear flag into a moving average crossover
• A doji at moving average resistance
• Resistance at 50% Fibonacci retracement (I drew a Fibonacci retracement on the chart to determine resistance and a Fibonacci Price Extension to plan a target)
  
• A possible trend reversal
• A market that is extremely overbought

I took an aggressive short position when I saw all those things line up today. When I see things "fall into place" like this, I get very aggressive and risk much more than I usually do on a trade. I can make my weekly goals with one trade if it goes as planned.

Unfortunately (for me and other sellers), for some reason--whether it's the summer doldrums or big players who won't quit buying--this market just doesn't respond well to the down side.

As soon as price sliced through the moving averages, I knew this trade didn't have the power that I thought it did. I was expecting the flag pattern to reach its target quite readily. I moved my stop to break even because I didn't like the way price was "flowing". I stopped out with a small gain.

Soon after that, the buyers got back in and rocketed price back up to near the highs of the day. My gut tells me that one of these days we'll have a massive trend down day. But it sure hasn't paid to be short this market much in the last 5 months. Jeesh.