Wednesday, June 24, 2009

Crazy Fed Day in SPY

The trading day has about an hour left, but I'm done for the day. This was a very difficult day for me. It was my worst day trading so far this month.

I started off with a stupid trade--trying to fade the opening gap. I thought it had good prospects of filling so I wagered more than I usually do on gap fades. Apparently it is unwise to fade gaps on Fed days. I noticed a Twitter post from Scott Andrews that the gap today had low odds of filling about an hour after I stopped out.

No big deal. Now odds favored a trend day and I had plenty of opportunity to earn back my money. I took the first pullback near the moving average and held on until it dipped below and I couldn't take it any more. Another large loss.

Then price broke above the 20 and I took that as a continuation of the trend (price hadn't broken the 50EMA). That trade at least went in my direction for a few minutes. And then I stopped out of that one for a large loss. Ouch.
I then switched to the DIA chart because my trend day concepts weren't working, and I saw the moving averages attempting a crossover. I made a large trade and it went in my direction quickly and I envisioned making back my losses for the day. And then the market went nuts after the Fed announcement.

It went nuts in the direction of my trade, but unfortunately, for a split second price rose up above the moving averages and triggered my stop by 2 cents and then headed down hard. How frustrating. Instead of making back my losses (and probably a lot more), I was stopped out with another loss. I decided to quit for the day.

Corey Rosenbloom sent his condolances because of my sucky day along with a tip on an aggressive "Fed Day Trade". I took the trade hoping to make up some of my losses. Fortunately, I was able to make up nearly all of my losses with one final trade.
I think I've learned my lesson about getting too aggressive on a day that the Fed makes any decisions. However, knowing myself like I do, I'm thinking I'll probably make all the same mistakes again. Stay tuned.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Kudos to you for sharing your experience. Some days are tough but chances are you'll recover your loss and gain $$$ and experience.

Cheers!