More about August

I was quite surprised when I went over the Zweig screen for August. I base a lot of my trading on that screen and I figured it would have taken it on the chin during the month of August. On the contrary, it made 5.27%. Buying all the stocks you see in the chart on the first day of August and holding them through today would have beat me by 20% this month. That makes me question my tactics a little bit.

A couple of stocks caught me by surprise this month. I didn't have BW on my watch list this whole month and it was the best performer in the screen. I also ignored HRS and jumped out of VMI too soon.

I'm not sure if this month was an just a fluke, but I'm sure there is some further analysis that I can do to figure out what went wrong.

Adsense on StockPunk

I debated for several months whether or not to include any advertising on my site. Some stock bloggers I admire refuse to allow outside advertising (The Kirk Report) and some layer them on pretty thick.

I planned to take the high road like Charles Kirk until I read an article in last month's Fast Company magazine about a 17-year-old girl who started a web site that offered cute templates for MySpace accounts for free. She included Adsense advertisements and this year cleared ONE MILLION DOLLARS (you have to say it like the evil guy in Austin Powers). Holy Toledo!

So, I jumped on the band wagon this August and --you may want to sit down for this--I made THREE DOLLARS AND EIGHTY ONE CENTS (you can turn off your evil guy voice for that one). So tonight I'm treating myself to some Taco Bell (I probably won't be able to get a drink--just water please).

Month In Review -- August 2007

To put it bluntly, my trading in August sucked. Fortunately, the market as a whole sucked as well so I don't feel too awful about my performance. Judging from a perusal of other blogs, sites, and newsletters, August was tough for everyone.

For the most part, I stuck to my trading plan in August. I didn't lose more than 1% of my portfolio on any one trade. Unfortunately, I had several losing trades in a row so I ended up down around 10% for the month.

Like I've mentioned before, I've dramatically changed the amount of risk on each trade. Last year I often was fully invested in one or two stocks with wide stops. A struggling market made HUGE dents in my portfolio that were hard to recover from. I'm not seeing HUGE advances either, but I'll take a less volatile approach over insanity any time.

I've been taking a closer look at technical analysis since this downturn began. I've been a fundamental guy for years and frankly technical analysis never seemed to work for me. But during the past month I've seen some advantages to using TA when my stocks with strong fundamentals began sucking wind. It would have been prudent to look over some charts before I blindly jumped back in (and consequently got my clock cleaned).

I'm counting on a strong finish to the year and my goal is to recover my losses and be ahead by more than 43% by December 31st. I've got my work cut out for me, but with every passing month (and day) I learn something new.

What to do

I had myself convinced that I should stay out of the market today and let sleeping dogs lie until Tuesday. But the premarket and overnight trading in Asia have got me all worked up. Do I sit this one out and potentially miss out on some decent gains or do I take a risk and jump in for some short term action. Hmmmmm.

More confusing action today

Early on the market tanked and then roared back and then tanked again and ended up down a bit. If you've got a handle on this action, pat yourself on the back. I'm hoping that September will make more sense, but historically it has been a volatile month. I'm too impatient to wait a whole month (I'm doing good if I wait a couple of days) so I plan to regroup this weekend and try my luck again on Tuesday (you know you're a trader when you look forward to Mondays and you're disappointed if Monday is a holiday).

Somebody likes StockPunk

Value Blog Review has set up a best of the stock blogs list where folks can vote. I thought I would be bumped off the list pretty rapidly, but some how StockPunk remains in the top 20. Thanks to those of you who have voted. It makes me feel all tingly inside.

A voice of reason

I've mentioned The Prudent Speculator in previous posts. Hulbert Financial Digest reports that TPS has averaged a 20% return for the last 20 years. That's the best performance that any newsletter advisory has been able to put together according to Hulbert. If your portfolio is doing better than thier's then you should probably quit whining.

Here is an article from the authors of The Prudent Speculator that kind of "qualifies" the recent market action. It's good to listen to some voices of reason during confusing times in the market.

There it goes again (part 2)

I wasn't expecting that. I finally convince myself that after a big losing day where several of my stops trigger it isn't prudent to get all worked up and jump back in. Then Bernanke makes it all better and everybody jumps back in while I'm left holding a bunch of unsettled funds. Oh well, it was just one day. But I'm getting really tired of these "one days" that make no sense.

There it goes again

Last week's gains are but a memory. Where do we go from here? I wish I knew. There are still folks out there saying a huge rally is building up. I hope so.

Today my portfolio was down 3.10% -- its worst showing since June. It has been very difficult for me to figure this one out, but I've learned that there are some bloggers out there who have devised some valuable indicators.

Stockbee has been cautioning his readers since the decline started and has implored traders to stay out until after Labor Day. I thought he was being a bit extreme, but now he seems quite reasonable.

Whatever happens, I hope to learn from this. I hope you do as well. Stay encouraged. People have been making money in the markets for hundreds of years. This last month doesn't mean a thing.

Not much there

The market kind of churned all day with nothing really notable. Every one of my picks was down today. My portfolio was down 1.18%.

I didn't see anything concerning today so I'll just keep following the program I guess.

Where are we headed?

There's lots of chatter out there about the direction the market is going to take this week. Stockbee says that this most recent bounce will end up heading south soon. Stox Investor says the bulls are "about to get smacked". The Kirk Report says the bears are on the run.

I don't think that anyone knows for sure. I'm planning to keep my money working this week unless things move strongly in the wrong direction.

This week I'm going to try to limit the time I spend watching the market. I usually spend 1 to 2 hours a day just watching the ticks and I've come to realize that it's a tremendous waste of time. I don't really learn anything by watching and often I make bad decisions when I get wrapped up in what's going on out there.

My best time for learning and thinking is early in the morning, the few hours after the market closes, and the weekend. I seem to make the best decisions when things are shut down and the data isn't constantly changing.

This Week With StockPunk

There are a few changes in my screens, but after a pretty good week, I'm hesitant to mechanically dump stocks that no longer appear on my screens. I'm holding on to last week's winners and dumping the poor performers that no longer appear on the screens.

I'm hoping that things continue positively this week, but there is still a lot of uncertainty out there. Have a good week!!

StockPunk Poll

It looks like the majority of StockPunk readers use stock screens to pick their stocks. The next highest choice was doing your own research followed by stock blogs.

Personally, I find stock screening the best way to go for finding my picks. I've tried using my own research, but I've found that my emotions and flawed logic always get in the way. I make assumptions that influence my decisions based on what they company does, trends, economic influences, etc. All that stuff just gets me confused and I end up holding on to losers too long.

Stock screens keep the emotion out of my decision making. If I'm doing what I'm supposed to based on my strategy, there is no reason to be upset about stocks plunging.

Stock Superstars and The Prudent Speculator

I am obsessed with looking over performances of newsletters, blog writers, and indexes and I on Friday it makes me giddy to compare my performance with the "big boys". Two of the newsletters that I check each week are The Stock Superstars Report and The Prudent Speculator. There are very few advisory services that are bold enough to post their returns each week, and both of these services do.

You'll notice that despite the brilliance of the managers of these services (I am not being sarcastic--those guys are SMART) both of them are struggling this year. Neither one of them is outperforming the market by much.

So don't be discouraged if you're struggling as well. This market isn't making things easy for anybody.

Week In Review 8-24-2007

"We've long felt that the only value of stock forecasters is to make fortune tellers look good. Even now, Charlie and I continue to believe that short-term market forecasts are poison and should be kept locked up in a safe place, away from children and also from grown-ups who behave in the market like children." Warren Buffett

I always insist that I have no idea where the market is headed at any given time. Great investors seem to say the same thing. Does that make me a great investor? Probably not.

Although I got beat by most of my stock screens, I still ended up having a positive week this week. The portfolio was up 5.22%. Another week like that and I'll be back to where I was a month ago.

I stayed pretty unemotional throughout the week. I barely even monitored things today. It was a pleasant surprise when I looked over things after the close. I wasn't quite sure where I would end up at the end of the week.

I have no idea where things are headed, and there are a lot of folks out there that are still very concerned, but I'm feeling better about keeping my money active.

Back Down Again

I made a mistake with a trailing stop I set today, but otherwise I stuck to the program. I was down 1.35% today.

I was hoping the jump at the open would continue throughout the day but no such luck. Things still look pretty solid if you ask me so I'm planning on sticking with things until I get some bad feelings about where things are headed.

FINALLY!!

It's been a month and a half since I've made over 2% in a day. Today I was up nearly 3%. Man, that felt like more like 6 months than 2.

Things are starting to click again, and it looks like the market is getting its legs back after a good punch in the nozzle. There is still a lot of uncertainty and confusion out there, but we are starting to see a lot more stability.

Is it OK to come out and play?

Another OK day today. I made some money again. Things continue to feel "right" and I'm nearly fully invested right now. The market still seems a bit skitterish but I haven't noticed any gut-wrenching swings that were common the last few weeks.

I MADE MONEY TODAY!!!

For the first time since July 27th, I made some money. That's almost one whole sucky month. It wasn't much, but it felt good to finally make some decisions that weren't to my detriment.

I have a better feeling about the market. It feels more like it did before the dark times. We'll see.

This Week With StockPunk 8-20-2007

I'm planning on putting some money to work this week. My gut tells me that the worst is behind us for a while, but then again, what do I know. Every stock on my screens is a bit beat up, so hopefully over the next few weeks they'll recover a bit.

Looking back over the last four weeks, I think my lack of patience is what hurt me. I got a little too cocky about being up 43% and doing well during the first week of the downturn. The second week bumped me out of all of my stocks, but I was so hurried to get back in and catch the bounce that I got my clock cleaned on several buys.

I did the same thing in March when the market corrected a bit. I jumped in the next day after the big drop thinking that I was going to capitalize on a bounce back up. I got burned badly that time too (but apparently not bad enough that it taught me a lesson).

I think it would be good to take a longer break after my stops trigger. The market isn't going anywhere, and it will welcome me back after sitting out a few weeks.

Thanks to those of you who voted in the StockPunk Poll last week. There were no big revelations. Some of us have lost a lot and some haven't during the last few weeks. Congratulations to the 15% of you who have made money in the last month.

If anybody would like to write in and share with StockPunk readers how you made money or some of the mistakes you made (like me) please do. Just e-mail me your story and I pick some good ones to post to the blog.