Week In Review 5-23-2008

Things didn't go any better for me today. One week ago, I was flying high. This week I got kicked in the shins. For the week, my portfolio lost 9%. The market has a way of teaching guys like me painful lessons. The key is to live to fight another day. I know that what I do works over the long run. One week is just a blip. This week was a nasty blip, but a blip nonetheless.

None of my screens suffered like I did. Zweig Relative Strength 5 (down 5.92%) was brought down by GHMs 15% drop--ouch. There is a lot of good discussion on StockPunk this week about using stops and about some of the struggles Zweig screen traders had this week. There are always going to be weeks where the screens blow up on you. Most people who trade don't make money because they quit after a week like this. If you just realize that you've got to experience the bumps and bruises and just stick with the program. Don't over-think things. Just trade your plan and hang in there.

The other screens did relatively well considering the trading environment this week. Zweig MACD lost 1.79%, To the Moon was up 1.45%, and Zweig and Zacks was down 2.01%.

It will be nice to have a break on Monday (its been a long time since I've looked forward to a holiday from the market). Take the long weekend to relax, rethink, and enjoy the freedom we all enjoy to trade our money in the freest market in the world.

Week In Review 4-25-2008

This week was disappointing for me. It started off really good and I have to admit I got a bit cocky about my stock picking and whenever that happens I get kicked in the pants. I had very few stocks from the Zweig screen this week and naturally the screens kicked my buttocks. I made a whole $16.86 this week.

The Zweig MACD screen screamed thanks to an excellent performance by GDI at 18.29%. MACD had many other good performers including AMED, ARO, GHM and AME. The screen is also out of the hole for the year now (I wish I was).

Zweig Relative Strength 5 had a pretty good week as well with a 3.47% return. WFR drug the screen down while the top 3 in the MACD screen also appeared in this one.

Zweig & Zacks had no qualifiers this week so it gained (or lost) nothing.

To the Moon didn't do much.

Week In Review 4-12-2008

I had a good feeling on Monday about the direction the market was heading, and once again the market has taught me the value of my "feelings". For the week I was down 2.44%.

The Zweig Relative Strength 5 screen was the best "performer" this week with a loss of 1.37%. GHM was the best stock in that screen with a gain of 5.12% while WATG was the worst with a 7.42% loss.

To the Moon was the worst performer for the week with a 2.69% loss.

The Earnings report from GE sure put a damper of what was looking like a decent rally. Hopefully next week will produce some companies who have handily beat earnings. Otherwise we could be in for a nasty month.

Week In Review 2-22-08

Well, that week sucked. My screens all did better than I did. I completely over traded this week and my portfolio shows it. I've got stocks from four different "systems" in my portfolio now and I've got so many that it is getting difficult to remember why I bought each one. Stupid. I know better, but I get so desperate to make money sometimes that I grasp at anything that looks like it will work. Like always, I ended up hurting myself much more than helping.

The Zweig MACD portfolio continues to lead the pack this year with another good showing of 3.32% this week. The best stock in the portfolio was WFR at 7.37%. The worst was KEX with a loss of 2.11%. The screen picked 11 stocks.

The Zweig Relative Strength top 5 made 3.37% for the week.

Zacks & Zweig lost 1.36% and had 3 picks--ANDE, KEX, WW.

The To The Moon screen lost 1.59%.

I'm adding the Zweig MACD screen to the side bar because I think it has potential. We'll see.

My portfolio is down nearly 14% which means I've lost nearly half of the 40% I made last year. I guess I shouldn't look at things that way, but I can't help it.

Week In Review 2-15-2008

Most of my problems this week came from trading mistakes. I held too long on stocks that I knew I should sell, and I didn't take gains when I had them. I decided to change my strategy a bit to take advantage of the volatility that exists in the market now. I am still using my screens to purchase stocks on Monday and holding them throughout the week. I do that with half of my portfolio.

With the other half, I am more actively trading some small-cap stocks and holding for just a few days (or hours). I could have made some decent returns this week, but I'm too used to trading on a weekly basis. The weekend allows me to make decisions that are much less emotional than when I am trading during the week. I need to work on being more mechanical in my decision making if I want to make the intra-week trades work out. There's potential there, but only if I can keep my emotions (and so-called logic) at bay.

I am now being beat by ALL of my screens. I'm pathetic. To The Moon had the best returns this week thanks to a big gain by CSIQ--21.17%. The solar stocks came roaring back this week. The Zacks and Zweig screen had a pick on KEX that made 2.48% this week. So far that screen has only produced two picks since the beginning of the year. I'm thinking that it would be wise for me to track the number of picks on that screen each week to see if it correlates with overall market direction.

The Zweig RS 5 screen managed to eke out a .15% gain for the week. It had GHM, KEX, WATG, WFR & WSCI in its portfolio with KEX doing the best and WSCI doing the worst -4.07%.

I am now officially down YTD more than I have ever been since I started trading in 2003. I assure you that I'm quite bothered by that. I am still convinced that I can get out of this hole and make some decent gains this year. It will be a challenge.

It's during times like these that record-keeping is so important. I need to be constantly reassured that what I am doing works. There is nothing to reassure me but the history of my trading and of the screens I use. When I look back at the last few years, this past couple of months are just a blip.

Week In Review 2-8-2008

Another crummy week--down 3.22%. I feel better overall about how I handled the week. Like I've said recently, I'm more comfortable putting money to work and losing than watching from the sidelines. It did feel good to be in cash on some of those awful days, but the days where the market surged forward while I watched made me feel crunchy.

My goal this year is now to stay fully invested and see if I can still accomplish my goals. My constant indecision about whether to be in or out has already cost me several percent. I'm doing worse than all the screens (except To The Moon), despite missing out on some big down days.

I really want to see this year if trading for a living is a viable prospect. It may be good for me to go through a rough time like this so I can prepare for them in the future. If I can recover this year, I'll feel a lot more comfortable going forward.

Week in Review 2-1-2008

I got spanked.

This week was a mess for me and it is reflected in my account. I didn't lose anything (I gained a measly .5 percent), but when the averages looked like this (Dow +4.39%, the S&P 500 +4.87%, Nasdaq +3.75%, and the Russell 2000 +6.08%) I can't be too happy about my performance.

Here's where I went wrong (please learn from my stupidity):

• I lost focus and strayed from my plan
• I resorted to stops (and had no guidelines for how to place them)
• I paid too much attention to indicators, news, and other blogs which paralyzed my trading
• I worried too much about the broad market
• I waited for stocks to "prove" themselves and then got left behind as they rocketed upward
• I sold too soon

It has never paid off for me to market time, and yet I do it every time my account takes a hit. You'd think after years of doing this, I would learn my lesson. It just hurts so much to loose money even when you know it's all part of the game.

Now that January is over, I hope to get back to the plan and crawl out of this hole I've dug for myself.

All but one of the stock screens did very well this week. The ZZ#1 screen which filters AAII's Zweig screen with Zacks #1 ratings made 11.42% this week with it's one pick LXU. That is the first stock the screen has picked since the end of December which may be an indicator of its own (no #1 stocks--market sucks).

The Zweig Relative Strength screen made 4.05% this week but is still underwater for the year. The screen would have done much better if it wasn't for the blowup of GHM at the beginning of the week. I picked GHM up on Wednesday and have made a nice 13% on it so far which was my only good call this week. Without GHM the screen would have made over 10% this week thanks to a tidy 29% return for WSCI.

StockPunk's To The Moon screen is sucking wind and is down over 11% for the year so far.

Week In Review 1-4-2008

What an awful week that was. I got caught on the wrong side of this action and lost over 3% for the week. StockPunk's To the Moon screen had a good week however--if only I had invested in it.

An Awful Week--The week in review

That was one of the worst weekly showings that I've ever had. I lost over 10% and I'm starting to feel a lot less confident that this is a minor blip. I've been ignoring a lot of traders who are smarter than I am who have said we're in trouble. I hope that they are wrong, but for now, I'm not buying anything new.

• Another Zwieg groupie
• Phil Grande says he predicted this week back in March. He's got some interesting things to say on his radio show.
• I may have got my butt kicked, but I'm still way ahead of the geniuses at Stock Superstars and the Prudent Speculator.
  
• Point and Figure Charts explained (and explained well)
• I've learned that it's not a good idea to buy options during a down trend.

Week In Review 11-2-2007

A wacky week that rarely made much sense to me. The portfolio gained a wimpy .80% this week while most of my screens did pretty well despite the overall markets tanking at the end of the week. I was up nearly 53% for the year until Thursday--my dreams of riches were dashed. I guess I'll have to wait until next week.

Week In Review 10-26-2007

What a wacky week! I can't believe I actually made money--and good money at that. I had a hard time avoiding the news and I benefited from all the power and internet outages.

For the week the portfolio was up 7.52% which brings the portfolio to its highest point this year at a little under 48%.

I assumed that my mechanical screens would struggle this week, but they ended up doing pretty well.

I took my first foray into options today, and it wasn't as confusing as I assumed that it would be. I'll keep everyone updated on how things progress, but I see some opportunities in the options market and I need to quit being scared (and ignorant) of them.

Week In Review 9-7-2007

That was a nasty week. I was feeling all good about myself going into Friday morning. I looked at the premarket and got that sinking feeling--why am I not a day-trader? It sure would be nice to be sitting on a big pile of cash in the morning when everything goes to pot. Maybe some day I'll get it figured out. For today I lost 2.20%.

The week wasn't too awful. I made a little over 1%. If I could just do that each week--hmmm. A good sign is that I got handily beat by a couple of my screens. There are a few stocks that are doing quite well out there and I capitalized on a couple SILC & FTI.

It will be interesting to see what Monday will bring us.

Week In Review 8-24-2007

"We've long felt that the only value of stock forecasters is to make fortune tellers look good. Even now, Charlie and I continue to believe that short-term market forecasts are poison and should be kept locked up in a safe place, away from children and also from grown-ups who behave in the market like children." Warren Buffett

I always insist that I have no idea where the market is headed at any given time. Great investors seem to say the same thing. Does that make me a great investor? Probably not.

Although I got beat by most of my stock screens, I still ended up having a positive week this week. The portfolio was up 5.22%. Another week like that and I'll be back to where I was a month ago.

I stayed pretty unemotional throughout the week. I barely even monitored things today. It was a pleasant surprise when I looked over things after the close. I wasn't quite sure where I would end up at the end of the week.

I have no idea where things are headed, and there are a lot of folks out there that are still very concerned, but I'm feeling better about keeping my money active.

Week in Review 8-10-2007

What a ride. This was a frustrating week for me. EVERYTHING that I tried failed miserably. I'm all cash going in to this weekend. I lost 3.17% this week despite barely trading at all.

I almost wish things would have been worse today. I could use some confirmation that I'm doing the smartest thing by staying on the sidelines. There were several of my watchlist stocks making 5% or more today and that bothered me a bit. That makes Monday difficult to judge.

I'm not convinced we're out of the woods yet. My best bet is to take next week off and re-evaluate things next weekend. We'll see if I can hold out that long.

Week In Review

What a week! There are a lot of conflicting ideas about what happened this week and about what's going to happen in the near future. I have no idea.

The portfolio actually had a good week -- up 4.16% (more on that this weekend). However, every one of the StockPunk portfolios bit it big time this week with the Zack's and Zweig portfolio showing its worst performance since I started tracking in 2005. It lost 10.69%.

I haven't figured out what I plan to do next week and I'm sure many of you are wondering the same thing--what now? I don't short stocks, so if things don't improve, I'll probably watch from the sidelines for a while.

Week In Review 7-20-2007

This was a pretty wild week. I started to drift off course a bit and made some poor decisions. Overall, though, I'm happy with most of the decisions I made--the portfolio was up 3.11%.

My best screen continues to rock. To the Moon added another 8.03% which is the only reason I made money this week. I am too much of a coward to go whole-hog into the To The Moon screen because the returns beyond this year are the result of backtesting. My cowardice has cost me as I continue to dabble with some of the stocks the screen suggests, but I am happy with the amount of hedging it has provided me over the past month.

Like an idiot, I bought a couple of stocks that didn't appear on my screens, but were listed on blogs of folks who know (or appear to know) what they're doing. Needless to say, I lost on all of them. I did the same thing last year at this time and lost my shirt then too. Maybe I've gotten too much sun.

Week In Review 7-06-2007

This week illustrates why mechanical trading often trumps putting lots of intellectual labor into choosing stocks. Conventional wisdom suggested that this was a very poor week to trade.

1. The July 4th Holiday split the week in half
2. Volume during this week is historically tepid
3. Market news was infrequent and uninspiring
4. A lot of folks took the week off
5. The market is way overbought

I was contemplating cashing out and taking a break with everyone else this week. But I stayed fully invested. It wasn't because I had a good idea how things would work out this week. It was because I really have no idea what's going to happen and most other folks don't as well. It is when I start to get cocky and think I've got things figured out that the market sinks me like a 10 foot put.

If I had opted out, I would have passed up my best week in over a year. The portfolio was up 9.43%. My best screen continues to give credence to its name and it blew the others away 13.79% (To the Moon). My worst screen was still decent at 5.82% (Zweig and Zacks #1).

Week In Review 6-29-2007

This was a rough week for me. I ended up down 3.20%. My worst screen lost 4.82% (Punk's Zweig RS 5) and the best made .82% (To The Moon). You can probably look at my returns and tell which screen I'm focusing on lately. VSEC rallied a bit today which tempered my losses, and I avoided buying SYNL on Monday (thank goodness).

I'm glad the week is over and we'll see if I've got some new prospects for this next week.

Week In Review 6-15-2007

This was my best week in a long time--since May of 2006. The portfolio moved ahead 7.02%. I implemented more of a weighted strategy this week and it worked out well. My best screen made 3.48% and the worst made 2.32%.

Even though AZZ made an impressive comeback today, it ended up losing 10% for the week. My decision to keep AZZ out of my portfolio paid off well. My screens would have come closer to my performance if some of them hadn't included AZZ.

SYNL had a good week this week making 15.84%. As I said before, I weighted SYNL heavier in my portfolio and that paid off this week. I plan to continue to use this strategy in the coming weeks. It has proven itself in the past, but I've been working on ways to keep the risk level from being too extreme.

Week In Review 6-01-2007

This was a better week for me and my trading. I avoided the emotional spasms that have encumbered me the last few weeks. I really set my mind to follow what I know works, and to let things happen the way they were supposed to happen. My portfolio was up 1.99%.

My best screen made 3.47% and the worst made 1.23% so I'm getting better at not over-managing my screens. I'd like to be closer to the best screen than to the worst.